Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Hockey and baseball guru Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, March 12.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Kazuma Okamoto Home Run (+425, Bet365 | Play to +410)
- San Diego Padres ML (+109, DraftKings | Play to +104)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Record a Win (-125, Bet365 | Play to -135)
Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction
As was to be expected, Okamoto was struggling to adjust to big-league pitching early on in his first campaign.
But following an 0-for-4 performance on April 18th, Okamoto made an adjustment in setting up much deeper in the box. He's been one of the league's best bats since.
Following the adjustment, Okamoto holds the 10th highest wRC+ rating in MLB (min. 30 PA's) and an OPS of 1.022. He holds a hard-hit rate of 58% in that span and has hit eight home runs.
Shane McClanahan is not nearly as dominant as he once was, while Rogers Centre ranks as the seventh most favorable ballpark for home runs and is also an above-average park for right-handed power hitting.
McClanahan has allowed a HR/FB rate of just 2.9% this season, but he ranks in the 29th percentile among qualified pitchers in barrel rate. Okamoto holds an xSLG of .546 versus fastballs and .545 versus the changeup, which suggests McClanahan's pitch mix sets up well for Okamoto.
McClanahan's last start did come against the Blue Jays, and Okamoto ripped a 112 MPH double off of McClanahan in the first inning, which was the highest exit velocity of his career.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto to hit a Home Run (+425, Bet365 | Play to +410)
Padres vs Brewers Prediction
Bettors likely won't be overly interested in backing Matt Waldron, who enters this matchup sporting an ERA of 7.71. But Brandon Sproat appears to be comparably poor, while the Padres' offense appears to be due to start yielding drastically better results versus right-handed pitching.
The Padres ranked 11th in MLB versus righties last season but have struggled to a wRC+ of 94 versus righties this season, thanks in part to owning the league's lowest BABIP. They rank fourth in hard-hit rate versus righties and 15th in xwOBA.
The Brewers hold a wRC+ of 105 versus righties but rank 27th in hard-hit rate, rank last in line-drive rate by a huge margin, and 28th in xBA. We know Milwaukee's approach does not revolve around power and is built on manufacturing runs with fundamentally strong play and efforts to create chaos on the basepaths, but regression still seems likely.
Waldron had his best start of the season last Wednesday, after being used following an opener. Whether that approach will be taken again remains to be seen, but regardless, Waldron does hold an xERA of 3.53 this season and a Stuff+ rating of 101, and already appears likely to start finding greater success.
The Padres' bullpen has been roughly as dominant as was expected entering the year, as San Diego's relievers have pitched to an ERA of 3.50, an xFIP of 3.39, while holding the third-highest strikeout-minus-walk rate. Milwaukee's relief staff has also been highly effective thus far, but projects to be the lesser unit and has outperformed its underlying metrics.
Sproat has pitched to an xERA of 5.05 this season and holds a Pitching+ rating of 93. He holds a walk rate of 13.7% and has been hard-hit 42.7% of the time.
Pick: San Diego Padres ML (+109, DraftKings | Play to +104)
Giants vs Dodgers Prediction
Along with the vast majority of baseball fans, I'm pleased to see that the Dodgers have lost six of the past 10 games and are now a half-game back in the division, even if it's highly unlikely this slump will mean anything in the grand scheme of the season.
It also seems very unlikely that the Dodgers' three-game losing skid will be extended Tuesday, with the Giants sending Adrian Houser to the mound to face a Dodgers side that has roasted him historically and one of the league's better pitchers.
Houser has struggled to an ERA of 6.19 this season, and his underlying metrics suggest he is among the NL's worst starters. He holds an xERA of 5.55, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 4.8%, and has been hard-hit 45.8% of the time.
Yamamoto has been considerably less dominant than he was last season and, more specifically, than he was during the postseason, but still appears to offer a massive edge over Houser. Yamamoto holds an xFIP of 3.52 and a strikeout minus-walk rate of 17.6%. His Pitching+ of 109 is on par with last season's mark, and he is still generating plenty of swing-and-miss.
Despite his reduced effectiveness, Yamamoto has still managed to work through at least five innings in every start this season. If he is able to do so again on Tuesday, he should have an excellent chance of leaving in line for a win, given the run support he is likely to receive with the Dodgers' high-powered offense facing off against Houser.
Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Record a Win (-125, Bet365 | Play to -135)
Nick Martin's MLB Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, May 12
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Kazuma Okamoto Home Run (+425, Bet365 | Play to +410)
- San Diego Padres ML (+109, DraftKings | Play to +104)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Record a Win (-125, Bet365 | Play to -135)
