Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Through his 11 editions of The Leadoff, Minion is 79-65-2 on his column picks, good for 29.2 units of profit.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, June 21.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Yankees vs Reds NRFI (-111)
- Yankees vs Reds F5 Under (-115)
- Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 HRR (-134)
- Rays ML (-136)
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB (+111)
- Christian Walker Over 1.5 HRR (-121)
- Royals F5 ML (-105)
- Bobby Witt Jr Over 1.5 TB
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 TB (+114)
- Joc Pederson Over 1.5 HRR (+113)
- Fernando Tatis Jr.Over 0.5 Singles (-138)
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR (+148)
- Nick Kurtz Home Run (+306)
- Zach Neto Over 1.5 TB (+143)
- Red Sox vs Mariners NRFI (-145)
- Red Sox vs Mariners F5 Under (+115)
Yankees vs Reds Picks
The Yankees will host the Reds on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
We are in for an elite pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Chase Burns.
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft, Burns was a highly-touted prospect, and he’s finally begun to capitalize on his potential, posting a 2.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 95 strikeouts across 80 innings and 14 starts this season.
Cole has seemingly bounced back from Tommy John surgery, recording a 2.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through his first five starts back.
I’m very high on both these pitchers and will be banking on a low-scoring ballgame.
Picks: NRFI (-111) | F5 Under (-115)
Brewers vs Braves Picks
The Braves and Brewers will duke it out on Sunday to conclude a three-game set at Truist Park in Atlanta. Bryce Elder will start for Atlanta, while Robert Gasser will make the start for Milwaukee.
Gasser has struggled so far this season, and I want to fade him by betting on some Braves props.
Gasser doesn’t have big-time velocity, instead relying heavily on his sinker and sweeper, throwing the pair of pitches more than half the time. He’s ultimately struggled against disciplined, high-contact hitters, especially with his command issues (85 Location+, 10% walk rate).
Ozzie Albies fits the disciplined, high-contact description to a tee. Plus, he’s hit well against sweepers and sinkers this season, especially when those pitches are left over the heart of the plate.
Picks: Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 HRR (-134)
Nationals vs Rays Picks
The Rays will host the Nationals on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Tropicana Field.
Starting pitcher Nick Martinez will look to build upon his solid first half for Tampa. Meanwhile, southpaw Andrew Alvarez will start for Washington.
Martinez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the first few months of the season, recording a 2.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 83 frames.
Alvarez has made just three starts this season, tossing around 28 innings, so I’m not entirely sure what to think of him yet.
But I think Junior Caminero matches up well against Alvarez, and I’m banking on him to have a massive day at the plate.
Alvarez throws his four-seam fastball around 24.4% of the time, but he’s struggled with contact on that pitch (.429 xwOBA allowed, 14% whiff rate, 11% strikeout rate), and that could be a problem against a right-handed power bat of Caminero’s caliber.
Caminero leads all Tampa hitters in slugging against Southpaws, and he excels at driving inside fastballs, which should give him a major platoon advantage in this matchup.
Picks: Rays ML (-136) | Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB (+111)
Guardians vs Astros Picks
The Guardians and Astros will duke it out on Sunday afternoon as they close a three-game set at Daikin Park in Houston. Kai-Wei Teng will start for Houston, while Slade Cecconi will take the mound for the visiting Guardians.
Both starting pitchers have struggled this season, each posting ERA’s north of 4.30. So, I think this could be a good game to target some player props.
I’d rather look toward Houston hitters, given Teng has flashed some really solid stuff this season, while Cecconi has been downright atrocious (78 IP, 4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)
Cecconi has made 38 starts in the AL over the past year and a half, so he’s matched up with many of Houston’s hitters on several occasions.
One guy who has taken advantage of Cecconi is Christian Walker, who is 2-for-3 against Cleveland’s righty, including a two-run home run.
Cecconi mainly relies on a mid-90s four-seam fastball (29.4% usage, .354 xwOBA allowed, 18.6% whiff), alongside a cutter and a sinker. Ultimately, he’s been vulnerable to damage against pull-heavy right-handed power bats.
Walker is very disciplined at the plate and crushes right-handed fastballs, so I’m banking on him to have a big day in the batter’s box.
Picks: Christian Walker Over 1.5 HRR (-121)
Cardinals vs Royals Picks
The Royals will host the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game homestand at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. Stephen Kolek will start for Kansas City, while Dustin May will start for St. Louis.
Though both starters have looked solid this season, I heavily favor the Royals in this matchup.
Kolek has recorded a 2.68 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season. And while May’s 3.75 ERA and 1.14 WHIP aren’t so bad, he’s struggled against this Royals lineup.
One guy who’s gotten the better of May in past head-to-head appearances is Bobby Witt Jr. Witt has ripped three hits in eight lifetime head-to-head at-bats against May, including a home run.
Witt started the season slowly, but he’s really found his form lately, and he enters this matchup on a heater.
I think the Royals take advantage of May in the first half, and I’m banking on Witt being a big part of that hot start.
Picks: Royals F5 ML (-105) | Bobby Witt Jr Over 1.5 TB
Blue Jays vs Cubs Picks
The Blue Jays and Cubs will square off on Sunday afternoon to finish the last of a three-game set at Wrigley Field in Chicago. We get a fun starting pitching matchup in this one, with Dylan Cease facing off against Shota Imanaga.
After a down 2025 in San Diego, Cease has bounced back this season, recording a 2.71 ERA behind 110 strikeouts, the third-most among MLB pitchers.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said of Imanga, who has continually gotten worse with each season in the big leagues.
- 2024: 2.91 ERA, 3.72 FIP
- 2025: 3.73 ERA, 4.86 FIP
- 2026: 4.26 ERA, 4.58 FIP
Thus, I’m looking to fade Imanaga in this matchup.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. matches up well with Imanaga’s arsenal.
Imanaga relies on pitches with late-breaking movement off the plate to force chases (37%, 97th percentile), but that won’t work against Vladdy, who is one of the most patient hitters in the game (10% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate).
Thus, I expect Imanaga will have to attack Guerrero over the plate eventually, and Vladdy punishes pitches left over the heart of the plate.
Picks: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 TB (+114)
Padres vs Rangers Picks
The Rangers will host the Padres on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Globe Life Field in Arlington. MacKenzie Gore will take the mound for Texas, while veteran Lucas Giolito will start for San Diego.
Giolito’s having a rough season (25 ⅔ IP, 4.56 ERA, 1.79 WHIP), as he’s completely lost command of his arsenal (13.6% strikeout rate, 17.8% walk rate).
Gore started the season in white-hot form, but he’s been highly inconsistent. He’s a high-strikeout guy but often struggles on contact (44% hard-hit rate allowed, 36% ground-ball rate).
I think this matchup could feature plenty of offense, and I’m looking to play some player props.
First, I’m looking to target Joc Pederson, who is 5-for-8 lifetime off Giolito with two extra-base hits.
Pederson has struggled so far this season, but this is a good bounce-back spot for him, especially considering how much Giolito has struggled against lefties this season (.429 wOBA allowed).
I also really like the matchup for Fernando Tatis Jr. against Gore, who can struggle when he’s not missing bats.
Picks: Joc Pederson Over 1.5 HRR (+113)| Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Singles (-138)
Angels vs Athletics Picks
We are in for a barn burner on Sunday afternoon as the Athletics will host the Angels at their temporary home at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento — a Triple-A park that has played like one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.
Reid Detmers will toe the rubber for the Angels, while Jack Perkins will start for the A’s.
I will do away with any extensive analysis of the starting pitchers, as Sutter Health has turned some of the sport’s most talented pitchers into dust.
It should come as no surprise that I’m targeting Nick Kurtz, one of baseball’s hottest hitters entering Sunday. He leads all hitters with 57 RBIs, ranks inside the top 10 with 18 home runs, and is currently running a .990 OPS.
Additionally, in four previous at-bats against Detmers, Kurtz has recorded two hits and an RBI.
And given how favorable the run-scoring conditions have been at Sutter Health, I also think an Angels’ hitter could find some success at the plate.
In four previous at-bats against Perkins, Zach Neto has two hits with a home run.
Picks: Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR (+148) | Nick Kurtz Home Run (+306) | Zach Neto Over 1.5 TB (+103)
Red Sox vs Mariners Picks
The Red Sox and Mariners will duke it out on Sunday afternoon to finish off the last of a three-game set at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
I’m very excited for this pitching matchup, with Payton Tolle facing off against Logan Gilbert.
In just his second season in the Major Leagues, Tolle has been brilliant, running a 2.93 ERA and 1.06 WHIP through 58 frames.
Like Tolle, Gilbert has also had a great start to the season, running a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across 87 innings.
Given the elite form of both starting pitchers in Sunday afternoon’s contest, I think this is a great spot to back for there to be no runs scored in the first inning (NRFI) of the game.
As a secondary betting angle, I favor buying into that same starting-pitching duel narrative and thus will be wagering for the first five total to go under in what should be a very closely contested, low-scoring affair.
Picks: NRFI (-145) | F5 Under (+115)
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, June 21
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Yankees vs Reds NRFI
- Yankees vs Reds F5 Under
- Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 HRR
- Rays ML
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB
- Christian Walker Over 1.5 HRR
- Royals F5 ML
- Bobby Witt Jr Over 1.5 TB
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr Over 1.5 TB
- Joc Pederson Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr Over 0.5 Singles
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR
- Nick Kurtz Home Run
- Zach Neto Over 1.5 TB
- Red Sox vs Mariners NRFI
- Red Sox vs Mariners F5 Under
