The Boston Red Sox (36-36) host the New York Yankees (42-27) on Sunday, June 15, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Red Sox have taken the first two games of this AL East rivalry series and look to complete the sweep of the Yankees on Sunday afternoon. Can the Red Sox pull off the upset against Max Fried and the Yankees on Father's Day?
Find my Yankees vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as Sunday probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Spread Pick
- Yankees vs Red Sox pick: Yankees -1.5 (play to -130)
My Yankees vs Red Sox best bet is the Yankees to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Odds, Lines
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -114 | 8.5 -102o / -119u | -187 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -106 | 8.5 -102o / -119u | +152 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (NYY) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 1.84/3.31 | ERA /xERA | 3.96/5.25 |
| 2.87/3.20 | FIP / xFIP | 4.57/4.49 |
| 0.93 | WHIP | 1.55 |
| 18.2% | K-BB% | 5.1% |
| 52.3% | GB% | 53% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 104 | Location+ | 102 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Preview, Prediction
Red Sox Betting Preview: No Bregman, No Problem?
Brayan Bello isn’t a pitcher I have very much trust in.
He enters Sunday with a 3.96 ERA; on the surface, a sub-four ERA for a mid-rotation arm is passable, but his 5.25 xERA and 4.57 FIP signal regression.
Furthermore, Bello’s poor peripherals are likely a result of his dreadful 6.30 K/9 and 4.30 BB/9. He also ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, chase, whiff, strikeout, and walk rate. That’s not the formula for a high-end pitcher, but he often relies on his 53% ground-ball rate to bail him out.
Through the first couple weeks of June, the Red Sox rank second in MLB with a 125 wRC+. That happening with Alex Bregman shelved is huge, and I’m optimistic about them possibly getting to Max Fried.
I’m sure Alex Cora will keep Rob Refsnyder and Romy Gonzalez in the lineup against Fried — they are two of Boston's top hitters against lefties. Most of the other right-handed bats haven’t fared as well against southpaws.
Cora has shown a hesitancy to play rookie phenoms Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer against lefties. Perhaps that’s a strong approach to protect them, but I’m not sure it’s the proper solution in the long term. It’ll be interesting to see Cora’s lineup construction this one and as the season progresses.
Rookie Kristian Campbell and shortstop Trevor Story each have a wRC+ below 100 against lefties. Plus, Abraham Toro, who’s been a total revelation at first base, is a non-factor against lefties.
Yankees Betting Preview: Fried's Cy Young Push
The Yankees' once-comfortable AL East lead has dipped to just 4 1/2 games over the Blue Jays and the Rays.
Similar to Bello, the numbers for Fried also point to possible regression. I’m less sure about Fried falling apart, though.
The highly-paid Yankees hurler boasts a 1.84 ERA with a 3.31 xERA and 2.87 FIP. But his 1.84 BB/9 and 0.61 HR/9 limit Fried’s margin for error. In addition to Fried’s elite 87th-percentile ground-ball percentage , he’s also a soft-contact machine, ranking in the 78th percentile in average exit velocity.
When these teams met in the Bronx last weekend, Boston avoided Fried's spot in the rotation. That feels like a big advantage for the Yankees, as Boston didn't get a first look at the AL Cy Young candidate.
The Yankees' plate approach is perfect for exposing Bello’s weaknesses. They rank sixth in walk rate and 14th in strikeout rate this month.
New York will plan to drive Bello’s pitch count up and get him out of the game quickly — and once that happens, Boston’s overworked bullpen will have a tall task versus a Yankees squad that has a 112 wRC+ in June.
Additionally, I believe the Yankees' offense will continue to improve. The eighth-place ranking in wRC+ isn’t emblematic of the true talent on New York’s roster.
Ben Rice is arguably the unluckiest hitter in baseball, while Paul Goldschmidt and Jasson Dominguez are hitting below .200 in June. Even if Goldschmidt isn’t what he was in April and May, he’s not hitting below .200 long-term. And Dominguez crushes right-handed pitching.
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
I typically wouldn't advise playing a nearly -200 road favorite against a competent team. And Boston is more than competent and likely better than its .500 record indicates.
However, everything lines up for the Yankees to drub the Red Sox on Sunday afternoon. It all starts with the offensive setting the tone against Bello and giving Fried run support.
His new Yankees teammates have been plenty receptive to his arrival, providing him with plenty of runs. New York has won 10 of Fried's 14 starts by two or more runs, so I feel very comfortable taking the Yankees to do the same thing against Bello and Boston.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (play to -130)
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm on the Yankees to cover the run line (-1.5).
Over/Under
I have no play on the game total.
