The Cleveland Guardians (12-8) host the New York Yankees (14-9) on Monday night in a rematch of last year's ALCS. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on YES and Guardians TV.
Below you can find my Yankees vs Guardians prediction and expert picks, plus the latest MLB lines, probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Yankees vs Guardians Predictions
- Yankees vs Guardians pick:Yankees Moneyline (play to -140)
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet is on the Yankees. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Odds, Spread
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +105 |
- Yankees vs Guardians Moneyline: Yankees -125, Guardians +105
- Yankees vs Guardians Total: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Yankees vs Guardians Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+135), Guardians +1.5 (-160)
Yankees vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | Clarke Schmidt (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.58 / 5.26 | ERA /xERA | 4.76 / 3.96 |
| 4.70 / 4.34 | FIP / xFIP | 3.38 / 5.69 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 9.6% | K-BB% | 0.0% |
| 36.4 | GB% | 36.8 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 89 | Location+ | 115 |
Yankees vs Guardians Preview, Predictions
Guardians Betting Preview
Another year, another disappointing start to the season for Gavin Williams. While Williams dazzled in the spring, he’s pitched to a 4.58 ERA with a 5.26 FIP. It’s the same things plaguing Williams that always have: He doesn’t strike enough batters out, posting just a 8.54 K/9 with an elevated 4.58 BB/9.
Sure, Williams is electric, with one of the hardest fastballs in the sport. But how hard you throw and how nasty a pitcher’s stuff is doesn’t matter if he walks everybody and allows homers (1.38 HR/9).
Williams has a worse Stuff+ than I imagined, sitting at 99, while his Location+ is a terrible 89. At some point, we have to look at reality. And the reality is Williams comes out and crushes in the spring and puts together a few decent starts a year, but is largely a below-average MLB starter.
Offensively, the Guardians have gotten better production from the bottom of the order since April 1, as Austin Hedges, Gabriel Arias, and Bo Naylor each have a wRC+ above 130. However, Kyle Manzardo and Carlos Santana have struggled this month, which is part of why the Guardians rank 16th in wRC+.
Yankees Betting Preview
The Yankees finally got one of their three injured starters back last week, as Clarke Schmidt allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings. Schmidt proved to be above average at striking out batters last year but Schmidt punched out just two Royals in his 2025 debut.
Notably, Schmidt changed his arsenal a lot. He goes to the sinker more than any other pitch besides the four-seamer but threw it just 9% of the time compared to 21% of the time last year. Was that just a matchup thing? Or did Schmidt just not have a feel for his go-to secondary offering? That's why breaking down numbers from one start could be misleading. I'm guessing Schmidt relies on his sinker like he typically does.
The Yankees have done an exceptional job replacing Juan Soto's production. Of course, Aaron Judge being Aaron Judge helps. He leads the sport with a 250 wRC+ and has already accumulated 2.0 fWAR.
Judge's dominance will continue, but the other three Yankees wRC+ leaders are Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, and Paul Goldschmidt. You can look at that in a few different ways. Its either concerning that the three best non-Judge bats are two hitters having career-best years, while Goldschmidt seemingly found the fountain of youth. I think I'm buying stock in the Yankees offense, though.
Grisham and Rice have two of the best Baseball Savant pages you'll see. The Yankees can't sit Grisham, who has six homers and ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. Rice, meanwhile ranks in the 100th percentile in barrel and hard-hit rate. Yeah, that's not too bad.
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'll roll with the Bronx Bombers on the road here. They have the more reliable starter and have a much better lineup from top to bottom. The big swing is the bullpen, as the Guardians have the best pair of setup arms in the sport with Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis. Meanwhile, closers Devin Williams and Emmanuel Clase — two of MLB's top closers — have looked anything but.
The Yankees don't have slouches leading to their struggling closer, though. Luke Weaver hasn't allowed a rune and Fernando Cruz leads the AL in strikeouts.
Give me the Yankees.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline (play to -140)
Moneyline
I like the Yankees on the moneyline on Monday.
Run Line (Spread)
While I'm betting New York on the moneyline, I do not have a play on the run line.
Over/Under
I also do not see value on the total.
