The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on April 17, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.
Two high-quality young starters will face off in Thursday's series opener between the Yankees and Rays, as highly touted prospect Will Warren will take on Taj Bradley.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs. Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Rays Prediction
- Yankees vs Rays picks: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases +140 (Bet365, Play to +125)
My Yankees vs Rays best bet is Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Rays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 100o / -120u | -110 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9 100o / -120u | -110 |
Yankees vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Will Warren (NYY) | Stat | RHP Taj Bradley (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 5.14/4.97 | ERA /xERA | 3.71/3.26 |
| 4.22/3.70 | FIP / xFIP | 3.30/3.12 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 14.0% | K-BB% | 22.1% |
| 42.9% | GB% | 32.5% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 101 | Location+ | 81 |
Nick Martin’s Yankees vs Rays Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Will Warren Turn it Around?
Warren's big-league career has gotten off to a rough start, as he holds an ERA of 8.35 in his initial 36 innings of work and a 5.14 ERA in his first three outings of this season. With Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, and Marcus Stroman all on the IL, he will have a lengthy opportunity to prove himself, and chances are the 25-year-old righty will stabilize in time.
Warren's arm talent is a big reason why the Yankees believe he can prove to be an effective starter, as he boasts a 103 Stuff+ rating and a 106 Pitching+ rating. He holds a K-BB% of 14 this season and an xFIP of 3.70, but has struggled mightily to strand baserunners (60.6% strand rate).
Batters have hit for plenty of power versus Warren so far this season, as he has allowed a slug-rate of .500, been hard-hit 48.6% of the time, and allowed a 14.3% barrel-rate.
The Yankees' high-powered offense will provide a tough matchup for Bradley, as they have hit to a wRC+ of 132 versus right-handed pitching this season, after finishing first in the league in wRC+ against righties. Paul Goldschmidt, Ben Rice and Trent Grisham are all off to highly productive starts, which, in a small sample, has replaced the void left by Juan Soto's departure.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Bradley Throwing Well
The Rays have hit the ball very effectively throughout their first 15 games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which appears likely to be a hitter-friendly ballpark. Tampa Bay holds a wRC+ of 135 at home this season and has slugged .431 as a team.
The Rays have also been highly productive versus right-handed pitching in 2025, as they hold a wRC+ of 130 and an OPS of .777.
Junior Caminero's continued emergence as a bona fide superstar has played a key role in the Rays strong start offensively, as he has slugged .500 with an OPS of .813. Caminero holds severe reverse splits so far this season with a .609 slug-rate and .949 OPS in 50 PAs versus RHP, after finishing the 2024 season with a nearly identical slug-rate versus righties and lefties (.424 versus RHP, .423 versus LHP).
As Warren seems to be proving currently, it can take some time to adjust to the increased challenge of pitching in the big leagues, a point well illustrated by Taj Bradley. Although pitching models have always been high on Bradley, this is the first season in which he has achieved above-average results where it counts.
Bradley holds a 3.71 ERA in 17 innings of work this season, and has strong underlying metrics with a 3.26 xERA and 3.12 xFIP.
Yankees vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis
It will be interesting to see how Warren fares in his fourth start of the season, as he hasn't been overly effective to this point but has the potential to achieve better results.
While Caminero surely is down to come to earth to some extent against same-sided pitching, a price of +140 for him to record over 1.5 total bases versus a starter that has been giving up plenty of hard contact is hard to pass up. It's well documented that he has the potential to be one of the league's most potent batters, and this appears to be a good time to back him staying hot.
Pick: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases +140 (Bet365, Play to +125)
Moneyline
There's a decent case to be made for both sides in this matchup, but as the game is now priced as a pick-em, my lean would be with the Rays at -110. Bradley has had an excellent start to the campaign and has the ability to continue dominating, as we have seen so far, if he can continue limiting home runs and blow-up innings, as he has in years past.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no interest in betting on either team to cover the run line.
Over/Under
If I had to bet the total, I would back the game to feature under 9 runs, as both Warren and Bradley have high potential; however, that mark seems fair considering how the Steinbrenner field has played so far and the offensive upside of both lineups.
Yankees vs Rays Parlay
- Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Warren Under 5.5 Strikeouts
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 Innings
Parlay odds: +475 (Bet365)
While I completely respect the possibility that Warren is due for better results at the MLB level, targeting him to struggle to figure things out for one more outing as he takes on a Rays lineup which has been in excellent form versus righties appears to be a solid option.
The Rays have struck out just 20.8% of the time versus RHP this season and have hit to a strong .282 average while displaying their typical level of scrappiness up and down the lineup. Adding the Rays to win the first five innings increases this parlay from +260 to +475, which appears to be a significant improvement to me, given that we are targeting another suspect start from Warren and considering the upside of Bradley.
Yankees vs Rays Betting Trends
