The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 17, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are favored by -140 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Pirates Prediction
- Phillies vs Pirates Pick: Under 7 (-105) | Play to -115
My Phillies vs Pirates best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Pirates Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7 -115o / -105u | -140 |
- Phillies vs Pirates moneyline: Phillies +120, Pirates -140
- Phillies vs Pirates over/under: 7 (-115o / -105u)
- Phillies vs Pirates spread: + 1.5 (-190), -1.5 (+160)
Phillies vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Zack Wheeler (RHP) | Stat | Paul Skenes (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 6-2 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 2.55/3.50 | ERA / xERA | 1.98/1.85 |
| 2.69/3.36 | FIP / xFIP | 2.50/2.83 |
| 16.8 | K-BB% | 26.5 |
| 48.5 | GB% | 44 |
| .246 | BABIP | .183 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 104 | Location+ | 115 |
Phillies vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
After an explosive offensive showing in Game 1 of the series, where these two teams combined for 20 runs, the mood drastically shifted when Cristopher Sanchez tossed a complete game shutout yesterday.
Left to follow that performance are two of the best right-handed pitchers in the game, Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler.
Starting with Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has been on an absolute tear since his anomaly of an outing on Opening Day. Skenes enters this start with a 2.16 ERA and is due to be even better as his xERA sits at 1.99.
He'll put those microscopic numbers up against a Phillies lineup that has largely underwhelmed against right-handed pitching thus far. Philadelphia holds a wRC+ of just 97 and has not shown much discipline, as they've walked at a low rate and chased at an even higher clip.
On the other side of this matchup is Zack Wheeler. Wheeler got a bit of a late start to the season as he recovered from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, but he's looking to be one of the few success stories after having that condition.
Yes, Wheeler's velocity has ticked down considerably, but we've already seen him make an adjustment to his arsenal in order to record outs. He has begun using all of his secondary pitches at a much higher rate.
While he has tendencies to the pitches he uses to attack lefties as opposed to righties, his four-seam fastball usage is down over six percent, and that's what has helped him remain effective.
Wheeler has created a ton of soft contact, and his grounball rate is as high as it's been since 2021. We should see him expose a Pirates lineup that has been fortunate against righties this season.
The Pirates have a wRC+ of 119 against righties, but are well below-average in barrel rate and contact rate. Additionally, they've hit the ball on the ground at the third-highest rate in the majors.
This game has all the makings of a pitcher's duel, which makes the under a strong play with runs at a premium for at least the first six innings.
Pick: Under 7 (-105) | Play to -115
