The Atlanta Braves host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 6, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn.
The Pirates are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Braves are -104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Braves Prediction
- Pirates vs Braves Pick: Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 or Better)
My Pirates vs Braves best bet is on Braxton Ashcraft's strikeout total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Braves Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -104 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -112 |
- Pirates vs Braves moneyline: Pirates -104, Braves -112
- Pirates vs Braves over/under: 8.5 (-102 / -120)
- Pirates vs Braves spread: Pirates -1.5 (+162), Braves +1.5 (-196)
Pirates vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| Braxton Ashcraft (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Spencer Strider (RHP, ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.77 / 2.78 | ERA / xERA | 3.77 / 2.93 |
| 3.04 / 3.15 | FIP / xFIP | 4.69 / 3.84 |
| 21.5% | K-BB% | 18.1% |
| 46.9% | GB% | 31.9% |
| .283 | BABIP | .250 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 103 | Location+ | 94 |
Pirates vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
I’ll admit to being a bit surprised that Brandon Ashcraft is the F5 favorite in this road affair against Spencer Strider and the Braves (not that he doesn't deserve to be), but I don’t think he’s getting enough respect in regard to his strikeout prop.
To start with, Ashcraft has pitched at least six innings in six straight starts and nine of 12. He’s averaged 24.75 batters faced per start, establishing strong workload tendencies.
He’s also struck out 27.3% of the batters he’s faced on the season and over the last 30 days, with corresponding swinging-strike rates of 13.7% and 14.3%.
The projected Braves lineup, the only one they’ve been using against RHP most frequently recently, includes six LHBs and three RHBs, averaging a 21.6% K rate against RHP since last season.
Ashcraft does not have a reverse split, but has struck out LHBs 31.9% of the time this year, 10 points higher than against RHBs. His curveball (29% vs LHBs) has an overall 41.9% whiff rate (Whiff rate differs from SwStr rate in that the denominator is total swings rather than total pitches).
Lastly, park and umpire give us an additional nearly 10% strikeout bump.
Pirates vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
As a result of all of the above, I have Ashcraft closer to seven strikeouts than six, while FanDuel is currently offering +104 to hit the latter number.
Pick: Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 or Better)
