The Houston Astros host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 3, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Pirates are favored by -155 on the moneyline and priced at +130 to cover the run line (-1.5). The Astros are +130 on the moneyline and -130 to cover +1.5 runs. The total is set at 8.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Astros Prediction
- Pirates vs Astros Pick: Pirates -0.5 First Five Innings -120 (Bet365, Play to -125)
My Pirates vs Astros best bet is Pirates -0.5 F5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Astros Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -105o / -115u | -155 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 -105o / -115u | +130 |
- Pirates vs Astros moneyline: Pirates -155, Astros +130
- Pirates vs Astros over/under: 8 (-105o /-115u)
- Pirates vs Astros spread: -1.5 (+130), +1.5 (-130)
Pirates vs Astros Kalshi MLB Odds
Pirates vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) | Stat | RHP Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 7-1 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 2.89 / 2.29 | ERA / xERA | 1.34 / 4.70 |
| 2.72 / 2.97 | FIP / xFIP | 3.98 / 4.98 |
| 24.7% | K-BB% | 8.6% |
| 42.9% | GB% | 35.8% |
| .241 | BABIP | .210 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 112 | Location+ | 91 |
Pirates vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Following his two worst starts since Opening Day, Skenes was quite dominant last time out versus the Cubs, as he racked up ten strikeouts and did not allow a single hard-hit ball. Over his last eight starts, Skenes has been true to form in pitching to an xERA of 2.23, a strikeout-to-walk rate of 28.4%, and an xBA of .202.
The Pirates' offense has hit to a wRC+ of 114 versus right-handed pitching this season and ranks sixth in xwOBA. They have seemingly had good luck on balls in play, but their hard-hit rate, barrel percentage and in-zone contact rate are up year-over-year.
Jared Triolo will continue to fill in for Konnor Griffin in Wednesday's matchup, which does hurt the team's offensive upside as Triolo has hit just .229 this season with an OPS of .534.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
After pitching to ERA's of 4.53 and 5.35 in his first two MLB campaigns, Arrighetti is in the midst of a breakout campaign with a 1.34 ERA and 7-1 record thus far, one of the few positive storylines for an Astros side that has suffered through many key absences all season long.
Arrighetti does appear to be among the more fortunate starters in baseball, though, as he's stranded 89.3% of baserunners and allowed a BABIP of just .210. While he's allowed an exceptionally hard-hit rate, his walk rate is a concern, and he's allowed an xBA of .231 as well as a zone contact rate of 88.2%.
With runners on the base paths, he has allowed an xFIP of 5.12, and with runners in scoring position, he's allowed an xFIP of 5.31. He also holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 6.9%. Once those numbers regress, his level of success should drop off considerably.
The Astros have hit to a wRC+ of 101 versus right-handed pitching, holds a BB/K ratio of 0.42, and ranks 13th in hard-hit rate.
Pirates vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
Arrighetti appears to be due for some significant regression, and the Pirates' offense has been in strong form of late, and has hit right-handed starters quite effectively all season long. They should have a decent chance of spotting Skenes some early run support, and Skenes more modest results of late do not appear to be anything to be concerned about.
At -120 we seem to be getting a good price to fade Arrighetti while backing one of the game's best starters.
Pick: Pirates -0.5 F5 -120 (Bet365, Play to -125)
