The Atlanta Braves host the San Diego Padres on July 23, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn.
The Braves are favored by -245 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (-115) on the run line. The Padres are +200 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-104) on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs (-110 / -110).
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Braves Predictions, Pick
- Padres vs Braves Pick: Padres ML (+200 or Better)
My Padres vs Braves best bet is on San Diego to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Braves Odds, Spread, Line
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 8 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 8 -110o / -110u | -245 |
- Padres vs Braves moneyline: Padres +200, Braves -245
- Padres vs Braves over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Padres vs Braves spread: Braves -1.5 (-115), Padres +1.5 (-104)
Padres vs Braves Probable Starting Pitchers
| RHP Griffin Canning (SDP) | Stat | LHP Chris Sale (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-8 | W-L | 10-6 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.1 |
| 6.67 / 4.94 | ERA / xERA | 2.06 / 3.31 |
| 4.81 / 4.53 | FIP / xFIP | 2.72 / 3.13 |
| 10.2% | K-BB% | 23.0% |
| 44.4% | GB% | 44.6% |
| .337 | BABIP | .299 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 92 | Location+ | 108 |
Padres vs Braves Expert MLB Pick
Padres Preview
The Padres have been a middling team all season long. They’ll have a dominant stretch here and there, but they usually end up around .500.
San Diego will send Griffin Canning to the mound in the series finale. It's been an unlucky year for Canning, who sports a poor 6.67 ERA, but his 4.94 xERA and 4.81 FIP point to positive regression.
I don't have a ton of faith in Canning righting the ship for a couple of reasons. For one, he walks 4.85 batters per nine. Secondly, he ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in all of the batted ball categories via Statcast.
The issue for San Diego all year has been its offense. That changed lately, as it ranks fourth in MLB with a 117 wRC+ in July. Their plate approach has put pressure on pitchers, ranking fifth with a 20% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate.
Everything runs through the two "stars" the Padres have: Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. Neither played well to start the year, and it's not a coincidence that San Diego was one of the worst offenses in MLB for a large portion of the season.
During this hot run, Machado has a 171 wRC+ with six homers, and Tatis has a 140 wRC+ with three homers. Also, Jackson Merrill and Ty France each have five homers, showing that the Padres are more than just a two-man show.
The most dangerous weapon at the Padres' disposal is their bullpen. Handing the ball off to Bradgley Rodriguez, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Mason Miller really forces teams to do damage on the Padres' starter. Otherwise, it can get late early with those power arms.
Braves Preview
The Braves will give the ball to Chris Sale, who is firmly in the mix for his second CY Young. The 37-year-old has a 2.06 ERA (2nd in MLB) with a 3.31 xERA and 2.72 FIP.
All the ingredients that made Sale elite in his youth remain true at the dawn of his career. He strikes out 10.54 batters per nine and is giving up just 0.69 HR/9, the third-best mark of his Hall of Fame career.
Sale is nasty as ever, but the Braves are just 6-6 in his 12 outings since May 2nd.
Atlanta checks in just behind San Diego with a 119 wRC+ since July 1st. For the Braves, Drake Baldwin needed to get right. He was dealing with a brutal slump, and it hurt a Braves lineup that was already without Ronald Acuna Jr. Now, the slugging catcher is running a 174 wRC+ with a 9% strikeout rate in his past 18 games.
Baldwin is one of six Atlanta regulars who have a wRC+ above 100 in July. In this matchup, being left-handed is a huge advantage for Baldwin and several of the other Braves big boppers.
They can platoon things with Mike Yastrzemski playing against righties and Ozzie Albies flipping to the left side. The opposing pitcher, Canning, has given up eight of his nine long balls to left-handed hitters. So, this lefty-heavy lineup should be ready to face Canning.
How To Bet My Padres vs Braves Pick, Best Bet
For reference on the line: The Braves were -120 on Wednesday and are -231 on Thursday. Sure, that's the Sale factor, but I view these two squads much closer than the -231 line would indicate.
It's tough to bet against Sale, but it's not like the Braves are overwhelmingly dominant when he pitches. It's been a toss-up for his last three months of outings. I can't justify laying such a big number when the Braves are just average when Sale pitches.
Canning will give up a few runs, but the Padres could get one or two on Sale and ambush this inconsistent Braves bullpen. Give me the underdog here.
Pick: Padres ML (play to +145)
