The Atlanta Braves host the San Diego Padres on July 22, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Braves are favored by -117 on the moneyline and are +1.5 on the run line. The Padres are -103 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Braves Prediction
- Padres vs Braves Pick: Padres Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+105)
My Padres vs Braves best bet is on San Diego to score five or more runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Braves Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -103 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -189 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -117 |
- Padres vs Braves moneyline: Padres -103, Braves -117
- Padres vs Braves over/under: 8.5 (-120o / +100)
- Padres vs Braves spread: Padres -1.5 (+155), Braves +1.5 (-189)
Padres vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| Michael King (RHP, SD) | Stat | Martin Perez (LHP, ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L | 6-6 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.34 / 4.62 | ERA / xERA | 3.54 / 4.61 |
| 4.10 / 4.51 | FIP / xFIP | 4.43 / 4.24 |
| 11.0 | K-BB% | 9.0 |
| 44.1 | GB% | 46.8 |
| .248 | BABIP | .242 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 100 | Location+ | 102 |
Padres vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Last night, the Padres took the second of this four-game series 8-3 and have now won four of the first five meetings against the Braves this season. After sweeping the Braves last month in San Diego, they were five games above .500. However, they are just 8-14 since then, and their playoff chances have slipped to 11.6% per FanGraphs.
Those odds may make the Padres sellers at the trade deadline, and if so, they will have one of the most valuable commodities on the market in closer Mason Miller. The two-time All-Star has 25 saves and a 0.89 ERA this season. He did not pick up another save last night, but did finish the game and struck out the side.
The Padres will likely be looking for starting pitching at the trade deadline in a Miller deal or any others. One of the league's best rotations over the last few seasons has thinned out as just one starter has a sub-4.00 ERA. Fortunately for them, that one starter is Michael King, and he is getting the ball tonight.
King's strikeout rate is down, and the advanced metrics have not loved him this season. However, he has given the Padres innings (113 and 1/3) and usually a chance to win every time out, posting a 3.34 ERA and 2.6 WAR. One of his best starts of the season came against the Braves when he tossed seven shutout innings while scattering six hits and striking out five.
If the Padres want to give A.J. Preller a reason not to sell, they will need Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado to stay hot. Tatis has homered in three of his last four games and hit the longest home run of the season last night. He has a .968 OPS over the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, Machado has hit nine of his 22 home runs over the last month. He added two more last night in his second multi-homer game of the season.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
Last night's loss dropped the Braves to 3-2 on their homestand, but the important thing is they may have found their offense again. Coming out of the All-Star break, the Braves have 35 runs in five games. They are averaging six runs per game in July after just 3.3 per game in June.
Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II and Austin Riley are all hitting over .300 with an OPS over 1.000 since the All-Star break, while Brewer Hicklen has added a spark at the bottom of the lineup.
Matt Olson is on his way to another 30-home run season as well, but the offense should be even better soon. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been rehabbing at Triple-A Gwinnett — including playing with fellow former MVP Andrew McCutchen — and could be activated before the end of their homestand.
If Acuna is activated tonight, he will look to help the Braves score more than three runs against the Padres for just the second time this year.
If they do not, they will need a strong outing from Martin Perez. However, he has allowed three earned runs in five innings or less in each of his last three starts and will now be pitching for the first time in 17 days.
One of those starts was against the Padres last month when the Braves fell 5-2. One Padres hitter that will be happy to see him is Machado, as he is 7-for-21 with a home run against him.
Padres vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
The Padres offense is not one that I look to back too often. However, they have scored five runs or more in five of their last seven games.
Tatis, Machado, Ty France and Jackson Merrill each have three or more home runs since the All-Star break, which most notably resulted in 19 runs against the Royals on Sunday.
They got eight runs last night and have scored five runs in three of five games against the Braves this season. That includes a game started by Perez last month.
At plus odds, I'll be backing their team total tonight.
Pick: Padres Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+105, DraftKings)
