The Boston Red Sox host the San Diego Padres on April 5, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -155 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +130 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Red Sox Prediction
- Padres vs Red Sox Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+140 | Play to +100)
My Padres vs Red Sox best bet is on Boston to cover the run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Red Sox Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -105o / -115u | +130 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -105o / -115u | -155 |
- Padres vs Red Sox spread: Padres +1.5 (-170), Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
- Padres vs Red Sox over/under: 9 (-105o / -115u)
- Padres vs Red Sox moneyline: Padres +130, Red Sox -155
Padres vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Walker Buehler (SD) | Stat | LHP Ranger Suarez (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 0-1 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 6.75 / 6.31 | ERA / xERA | 8.31 / 9.38 |
| 7.19 / 4.99 | FIP / xFIP | 8.50 / 4.75 |
| 1.75 | WHIP | 1.85 |
| 5.3 | K-BB% | 10.0 |
| 69.2 | GB% | 31.3 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 91 | Location+ | 97 |
Padres vs Red Sox Preview
San Diego Padres
The Padres have had a disappointing 3-5 start this year, losing series to the Tigers and Giants and splitting with the Red Sox so far. They won on Saturday and will look to kickstart a win streak.
Honestly, I don't know how Walker Buehler tricks teams into giving him MLB jobs. He posted a negative fWAR the last two seasons and gave up three runs in four innings in his Padres debut.
Once a super prospect for the Dodgers, Buehler is a shell of his former self. He used to average 97-98 mph on his four-seamer.
In his first start for San Diego, he sat in the 92-93 range. He walked 4.36 per nine last year and surrendered 1.57 HR/9. His stuff just doesn't play at this level anymore, and he'll need a strong offensive performance to avoid a loss.
That hasn't been easy for this Padres outfit thus far. They rank 29th out of 30 teams with a 77 wRC+.
The meat of the Padres' order has really struggled. Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .200 with a 77 wRC+ and no homers. Jackson Merrill checks in with a .185 average and a 68 wRC+.
The only upper lineup hitter with a pulse so far is Manny Machado, who boasts a .438 OBP, but just a .217 average. Some of these cold hitters need to get hot.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are off to a really tough start, sitting at 2-6. They lost five straight after winning on opening day and broke the losing streak with a win on Friday.
The "ace" is Garrett Crochet, but Ranger Suarez can serve as the "stopper" in this matchup. He was signed to a big contract to get outs in spots like these.
Suarez struggled in his Boston debut, allowing four runs and seven hits in just 4 1/3 innings. He also gave up a pair of homers, which is super uncommon for the sinkerballer.
I think Suarez gets back on track here. He generates ground balls on about half of his outs during his career, but it was just a 31% ground ball rate in his season debut against the Astros. The track record for Suarez is that of a top-20 pitcher in the game, and one start doesn't alter my thoughts on him.
Action PRO projects Suarez for five strikeouts today.
The Red Sox let Alex Bregman walk, and their offense really misses his bat right now. They rank 19th with an 89 wRC+, but that feels like the floor.
Outfielder Wilyer Abreu looks like a budding star, and Roman Anthony is seconds away from becoming one of the top hitters in the sport.
The veteran bats for Boston are struggling heavily. Trevor Story, Jarren Duran and Willson Contreras are each hitting .200 or worse, and they all bat in the top five of the lineup.
If the top of the order guys aren't hitting, it adds immense pressure to a lesser-proven bottom of the order. Still, I just think the floor for Boston's offense is greater than San Diego's.
Padres vs Red Sox Picks
With Buehler on the hill, I project Boston in the -180 range. It's the better team in general and has a huge advantage on the mound.
If you want to lay -155, that's fine, but my official play is Red Sox -1.5 at +140.
The plus money there is too nice to pass up for a Boston squad that should pounce on one of the worst pitchers in MLB.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+140, BetMGM | Play to +100)
