- Tony Sartori previews Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series between the Padres and Cubs.
- Sartori feel one side has an edge in this matchup and has made a Padres vs Cubs moneyline prediction.
- Continue reading for his full betting analysis and Padres vs. Cubs pick.
The Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres on September 30, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ABC.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Padres vs Cubs Prediction
- Padres vs Cubs picks: Cubs moneyline (-115 | Play to -120)
My Padres vs Cubs best bet is on the Cubs moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Cubs Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 7 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +185 | 7 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Padres vs Cubs Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Pivetta (SDP) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L | 14-8 |
| 3.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 2.87 / 3.99 | ERA /xERA | 3.21 / 3.72 |
| 3.49 / 3.85 | FIP / xFIP | 3.65 / 4.22 |
| 0.99 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 19.4% | K-BB% | 15.6% |
| 34.1% | GB% | 39% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 107 | Location+ | 107 |
Padres vs Cubs Betting Insights
Padres Recent Betting Performance, Stats, Player Insights
There has perhaps not been a luckier pitcher in baseball this season than Nick Pivetta. His surface-level stats are strong, but his underlying metrics paint a clearer picture of his actual performance.
This year, Pivetta ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. One of the biggest reasons for his unsustainable success has been pitching in favorable umpire situations.
This trend is evidenced by the fact that Pivetta ranks in the bottom half of the league in both chase rate and whiff rate, yet sits in the 78th percentile in strikeout rate. One could argue that this is due to consistently strong pitch placement, but if that were the case, his other analytics would not be so poor.
Regression is expected, and it began to manifest at the end of the regular season. Over his past two starts, Pivetta has posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
Cubs Recent Betting Performance, Stats, Player Insights
Meanwhile, Chicago hands the ball to left-hander Matthew Boyd. One of the stronger pitchers in the National League this season, Boyd is 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
The difference between Pivetta and Boyd is that the latter’s analytics support his success. In 2025, Boyd ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
This success is likely to continue against San Diego, a team Boyd has thrived against. Through two meetings, the southpaw boasts a 1.59 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Following Boyd is a reliable bullpen. This season, the Cubs' relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, xERA and xFIP.
Padres vs Cubs Picks
Not only does Chicago hold the pitching advantage, but it also boasts the hitting edge. San Diego finished the regular season in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage (SLG), OPS and home runs.
Meanwhile, the Cubs ranked 11th or better in each of those categories. Finally, this game will be played at Wrigley Field, where Chicago posted an impressive 50-31 record this season.
By comparison, San Diego finished 38-43 on the road.
Pick: Cubs moneyline (-115 | Play to -120)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting the Cubs moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like the Cubs to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the under, but don't trust Pivetta.
