The San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres on May 5, 2026. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA.
The Giants are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +112 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Giants Prediction
- Padres vs Giants Pick: Padres ML (+112)
My Padres vs Giants best bet is on San Diego to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Giants Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | +112 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | -132 |
- Padres vs Giants moneyline: Padres +112, Giants -132
- Padres vs Giants over/under: 7.5 (-104o / -118u)
- Padres vs Giants spread: Giants -1.5 (+152), Padres +1.5 (-184)
Padres vs Giants Probable Pitchers
| RHP Walker Buehler (SDP) | Stat | RHP Logan Webb (SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 5.40/4.87 | ERA / xERA | 4.30/4.42 |
| 3.42/4.04 | FIP / xFIP | 3.46/3.45 |
| 10.5% | K-BB% | 12.2% |
| 48.7% | GB% | 58.0% |
| .347 | BABIP | .323 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 93 | Location+ | 105 |
Padres vs Giants MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The Padres lost game one in this series and look to even it up tonight. They sit 1 1/2 games behind the powerhouse Dodgers for the NL West lead, but are not helping themselves with six losses in their past eight games.
There are not many interesting storylines with the 2026 Padres. They are reaping all the value possible from Cy Young candidate Mason Miller, while Xander Bogaerts has a quality bounce-back season (25th in NL fWAR). Jackson Merrill was ice-cold for the past three weeks, but he just hit his first home run since April 12.
Speaking of home run droughts, perennial MVP candidate Fernando Tatis Jr. is still without a dinger after 34 games. Tatis Jr. is deservedly receiving a lot of doubt regarding his true power potential.
Before his 2022 suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, Tatis Jr. hit 81 HR in 273 games, with a .596 slugging percentage. After his suspension, Tatis Jr. has hit 71 HR in 431 games, with a .447 slugging percentage.
A hitter's power peaking in his early 20s is unusual. Gaining power in "prime" years after 25 is the typical expectation. In fairness, Tatis Jr. missed significant time due to repeated shoulder injuries after his MLB debut, but he has had corrective surgery and no shoulder issues since then.
It is too soon to determine whether Tatis Jr. is having a "down" year, but it should not surprise anyone if he is. Tatis Jr. is just a good hitter, rather than the great hitter he was from 2019 to 2021. Good hitters deal with prolonged slumps sporadically throughout their careers. If he were still a great hitter, it would not have been half a decade since we last saw him in form.
Whether it be the corrective shoulder surgery or the PEDs, something has changed for Tatis Jr. His launch and attack angle on pitches is below league average. Even with a bounce-back, the Padres (and fantasy managers) would gladly take the version from recent years.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
The Giants have made some changes. They just called up former first-round pick Bryce Eldridge and their top catching prospect, Jesus Rodriguez. Both players have dominated Triple-A this season, but Eldridge is the only one returning to the majors.
Eldridge earned a minuscule look last season in 10 games. He slashed .107/.297/.179, with a 35.1% K-BB. This small sample did have a silver lining in Eldridge's .362 xwOBA. He made quality contact when he did connect on pitches, and he should get a significant opportunity this month to showcase his tremendous power.
Nevertheless, even with Eldridge's 159 wRC+ in Triple-A this season, his 29.9% K rate is concerning. Whether he can make an impact at the MLB level is to be determined, and the same goes for Rodriguez.
Rodriguez does not have the same age benefit as Eldridge. He is three years older and, thanks to elite defensive catcher Patrick Bailey, is unlikely to receive consistent playing time.
Unfortunately, with these call-ups, the Giants may have created a problem, rather than a solution. San Francisco's best hitter this season is former second-round pick Casey Schmitt.
The right-handed utility infielder has a 145 wRC+ and just hit another home run on Monday. Schmitt's bat is playing well against righties and lefties, yet he may not play every day against right-handed pitchers while Eldridge is up.
The Giants have a glut of infielders and designated hitters between Eldridge, Schmitt, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Luis Arraez, and Matt Chapman. Unless the plan is to place one of the veterans (Devers?) on the Injured List to get them "right", this will be a carousel to watch in the coming weeks.
Padres vs Giants Pick, Betting Analysis
Today's starters are on opposite ends of the spectrum in name value, but their 2026 peripheral stats are not that far apart.
Walker Buehler has a 4.87 xERA, 3.43 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, and a 4.26 SIERA. 2025 All-Star Logan Webb has a 4.43 xERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, and a 3.69 SIERA.
While Buehler's 5.40 ERA is more than a full run higher than Webb's 4.30 ERA, Webb is not pitching significantly better than he would in a "normal" season. To Webb's credit, he does pitch deeper into games. However, Buehler's worst start came in Coors Field against the Rockies. Webb has not pitched in a similar hitter-friendly environment yet.
Also, the Padres' high-leverage relievers are all fresh for this game. Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, and Mason Miller have each pitched just once this month. None of them pitched in Monday's game, guaranteeing availability for this matchup.
The Padres' offense ranks as average by wRC+ (16th) against right-handed pitching, while the Giants are last. This advantage, combined with their elite bullpen, makes up for the difference between Webb and Buehler as starters today.
Pick: Padres ML (+112)
