The Chicago Cubs host the San Francisco Giants on May 5, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Giants vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Giants vs Cubs Prediction
- Giants vs Cubs pick: F5 Under 4 (-110, bet365) | Play to -120
My Giants vs Cubs best bet is on F5 Under 4. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Cubs Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +125 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -150 |
Giants vs Cubs Projected Starters
| RHP Landen Roupp (SFG) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 5.10/3.30 | ERA /xERA | 2.70/3.59 |
| 3.87/3.52 | FIP / xFIP | 3.79/4.42 |
| 1.63 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 15.6% | K-BB% | 11.7% |
| 45.8% | GB% | 34.3% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 107 | Location+ | 98 |
Doug Ziefel’s Giants vs Cubs Preview
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview and Analysis
The San Francisco Giants come into this series fresh off a sweep of the Colorado Rockies. The Giants have outperformed expectations to this point, and after a strong weekend at the plate, they're due for some regression in this first game against the Cubs.
The Giants' team xBA is just .239, which stems from their second-lowest hard-hit rate in the majors. They aren't consistently making loud contact, and that tendency will help Cubs starter Matthew Boyd thrive.
Boyd has been very solid thus far for the Cubs. He enters with a 2.70 ERA, and the key to his success has been generating soft contact. Boyd ranks in the 87th percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
Most of the weak contact against Boyd has been fly balls, and the Giants have the sixth-highest fly-ball rate. So, that's a perfect match, but Boyd will win out more often than not on Monday, as the wind at Wrigley Field will be blowing almost straight in, knocking down many fly balls.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview and Analysis
On the other side of this matchup, the Cubs also enter this series with some confidence, as they're leading the NL Central and are doing so with great offensive numbers. The Cubs are second in the majors in wOBA and xBA, while also holding the second-lowest whiff rate in baseball.
That means they don't miss often when they swing, and the contact is usually loud.
However, Giants starter Landen Roupp has pitched far better than his 5.10 ERA and 1.63 WHIP show.
Roupp has been very difficult to square up against. He ranks in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate and as a result, is also in the top-20 percent in barrel rate and average exit velocity allowed.
In addition to that, making contact against Roupp's unique arsenal is tough in general, as his whiff rate in the 87th percentile shows.
Roupp is due for a ton of positive regression, as fits with command have inflated his numbers. If he can't get ahead of hitters, that could lead him to work hard through the first half, but many of the batted-ball results should end in his favor.
Giants vs Cubs Prediction
This series could very well be one we see again in October, and this pitching matchup is an excellent showcase of each team's pitching depth.
Expect Roupp and Boyd to work efficiently through the first half of this matchup, using the Wrigley Field wind to their advantage and keeping the scoring to a minimum.
Take the under in the first five.
Pick: F5 Under 4 (-110)
