One of the hottest teams in the league, the San Francisco Giants (12-4) look to notch another win over the Philadelphia Phillies (9-7) on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park on Jackie Robinson Day. First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBC Sports Bay Area/Philadelphia.
Justin Verlander gets the ball for the Giants on Tuesday night. Still winless as a Giant, Verlander is looking to rebound from two rough starts in April thus far. Opposing the future Hall of Famer is Jesus Luzardo, who has been absolutely electric for the Phillies in the early going.
Continue below for my Giants vs Phillies prediction for Tuesday.
My Giants vs Phillies Prediction
- Giants vs Phillies picks:Justin Verlander Over 1.5 Walks
My Giants vs Phillies best bet is on Justin Verlander to issue at least two walks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Phillies Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -112o / -108u | +136 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -112o / -108u | -162 |
Giants vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Justin Verlander (SF) | Stat | LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 6.92 / 3.94 | ERA /xERA | 1.50 / 2.59 |
| 3.95 / 3.74 | FIP / xFIP | 1.81 / 2.46 |
| 1.69 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 16.1% | K-BB% | 29% |
| 42.5% | GB% | 44.7% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 99 | Location+ | 116 |
Collin Whitchurch’s Giants vs Phillies Preview
Giants, Phillies Betting Preview: Verlander vs. Father Time
Justin Verlander has been living on the edges more this season than we've ever seen before in his career, which is likely evidence of his diminished stuff as he pitches in his 20th season at the age of 42.
Whether the stuff is the reason or not, he's throwing pitches outside the strike zone more frequently, with just 39.9% of his pitches in the strike zone so far through three starts, compared to his career average of 42.5%.
Pitchers with great stuff can live outside the strike zone — that's generally how you induce whiffs — and while Verlander is still striking out a fair amount of batters, much of that has to do with the fact that he's getting called strikes at his highest rate since 2019.
Giants vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Verlander has walked two or more batters in two of his three starts this season. The one in which he only walked one was against the Reds, who are arguable the most free-swinging team in the majors.
Tonight, he faces the Phillies, who thus far have the highest walk rate in the majors against right-handed pitching, and the second-highest walk rate overall next to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
His walks prop is sitting at 1.5 with the over juiced to -165, but I still think there's value in that given what we've seen from Verlander this season combined with the quality of opponent he's facing tonight.
Pick: Justin Verlander Over 1.5 Walks (-165)
