The Houston Astros (17-27) host the Seattle Mariners (21-23) on May 14, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Mariners are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+146) on the run line. The Astros are -104 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-176) on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs (-108 / -112).
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Astros Prediction
- Mariners vs Astros Pick: Astros F5 ML (-110 or Better)
My Mariners vs Astros best bet is on Houston's first-half moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9 -108o / -112u | -112 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 9 -108o / -112u | -104 |
- Mariners vs Astros moneyline: Mariners -124, Astros -104
- Mariners vs Astros over/under: 9 (-108 / -112)
- Mariners vs Astros spread: Mariners -1.5 (+146), Astros +1.5 (-176)
Mariners vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| Luis Castillo (RHP, SEA) | Stat | Mike Burrows (RHP, HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | W-L | 2-4 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 6.57 / 5.76 | ERA / xERA | 5.04 / 3.79 |
| 4.55 / 4.35 | FIP / xFIP | 4.64 / 4.07 |
| 13.5% | K-BB% | 14.4% |
| 34.1% | GB% | 37.8% |
| .364 | BABIP | .344 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 112 | Location+ | 99 |
Mariners vs Astros Picks for Today's MLB Game
I project the Astros as -121 ML favorites in this matchup, and therefore believe the wrong team is favored.
I just don’t think Luis Castillo is very good. He typically takes a long time to ramp up into full form, but he’s seemingly been pitching worse as the season has progressed.
He posted a 103 Stuff+ rating and 115 Pitching+ rating over his first four starts, but that’s dropped to 92 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ over the past four starts. He posted a season-low average fastball velocity mark in his most recent start (94.1 MPH). He’s allowed 15 earned runs over his past 15 innings.
Seattle needs to have a pitching advantage in this series because Houston boasts one of the league’s most dangerous lineups, and my power ratings don’t look favorably upon the Mariners’ defense (-0.35 DEF rating, 30th).
Of course, the Mariners will have a significant bullpen advantage, as they boast one of the league’s better relief staffs, while the Astros have negative pitching.
How To Make Mariners vs Astros MLB Picks
Still, I’m willing to take a shot with Houston on Thursday because I want to fade Castillo.
I’m no Mike Burrows fan, but he’s a comparable pitcher to Castillo by the underlying metrics. Burrows has a 3.79 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, and 4.44 botERA, while Castillo has a 5.76 xERA, 4.35 xFIP, and 3.86 botERA. Both pitchers are also running similar strikeout minus walk rates and ground-ball rates.
I feel that taking the Astros in the first half might be the better move, just because of Houston’s horrific bullpen situation.
Pick: Houston F5 ML (-110 or Better)
