The Tampa Bay Rays host the Seattle Mariners on July 11, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Mariners are -108 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are -108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Rays Prediction
- Mariners vs Rays Pick: Under 7.5 (-118)
My Mariners vs Rays best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Rays Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | -108 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | -108 |
- Mariners vs Rays moneyline: Mariners -108, Rays -108
- Mariners vs Rays over/under: 7.5 (-104o / -118u)
- Mariners vs Rays spread: Mariners -1.5 (+162), Rays +1.5 (-194)
Mariners vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) | Stat | RHP Griffin Jax (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L | 4-6 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.19/3.62 | ERA / xERA | 3.60/5.12 |
| 3.43/3.51 | FIP / xFIP | 4.48/3.47 |
| 22.0% | K-BB% | 17.3% |
| 35.1% | GB% | 44.8% |
| .250 | BABIP | .276 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 105 | Location+ | 104 |
Mariners vs Rays MLB Betting Preview, Pick
The Mariners vs Rays Under 7.5 feels like a good look because of the pitching matchup. Seattle sends out Logan Gilbert, who is on quite a roll right now, allowing a combined seven earned runs in his last five starts, spanning 33.2 innings.
During this stretch, Gilbert has an elite 32-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
On the other side, Griffin Jax is similarly in a nice rhythm, allowing a combined eight earned runs in his last six starts, spanning 31 innings. In this sample, Jax has a 32-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
I'm targeting the full game Under because we get it at 7.5. If I go with the first five innings, it will be at 3.5, which feels too low.
Getting above seven runs on this line is great because we still win if it's a close game with a 4-3 score line. We'll ride with a pitcher's duel in this one.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-118)
