The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 10, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Red Sox are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +112 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction
- Rays vs Red Sox Pick: Under 8.5 (-122)
My Rays vs Red Sox best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Red Sox Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +112 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -132 |
- Rays vs Red Sox moneyline: Rays +112, Red Sox -132
- Rays vs Red Sox over/under: 8.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Rays vs Red Sox spread: Rays +1.5 (-184), Red Sox -1.5 (+152)
Rays vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| Nick Martinez (RHP, TBR) | Stat | Payton Tolle (LHP, BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 1.71 / 3.90 | ERA / xERA | 2.04 / 2.03 |
| 3.44 / 4.34 | FIP / xFIP | 2.45 / 3.16 |
| 10.7% | K-BB% | 25.4% |
| 38.8% | GB% | 31.4% |
| .236 | BABIP | .167 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 105 | Location+ | 85 |
Rays vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
The Series Unders Off Low-Scoring Games system focuses on regular-season MLB matchups in which both teams are entering the second or later game of a series after producing minimal offense in their previous game.
When teams come off one- or two-game streaks of low scoring, particularly early to mid-series, the market can overcorrect or undervalue continued offensive stagnation.
This model anticipates that trend to persist—betting on the under when recent results and situational rhythm point to a slow-paced, low-output environment.
Rays vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
The Sox won 2-0 on Friday night, but Saturday's game with the Rays was rained out, so this system is still active.
From what I've read, we should still expect Payton Tolle and Nick Martinez on the mound for Sunday's matchup.
Boston's rookie Southpaw has looked fantastic this season, and the extra day of rest will be huge for him. His life is made a lot easier with MLB's best defense behind him — the Red Sox have been elite in the field this season.
I'm also relatively high on Martinez, and both teams will have fresh bullpens following Saturday's rainout.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-122)
