The Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 23, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Rays are favored by -111 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are -108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Rays vs Blue Jays Pick: Lean Rays ML at -105 or better
My Rays vs Blue Jays best bet is on Tampa Bay to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Blue Jays Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -189 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -108 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +159 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -111 |
- Rays vs Blue Jays moneyline: Rays -108, Blue Jays -111
- Rays vs Blue Jays over/under: 8.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Rays vs Blue Jays spread: Rays -1.5 (+159), Blue Jays +1.5 (-189)
Rays vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
| Ian Seymour | Stat | Shane Bieber |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.3 |
| 4.79 / 3.68 | ERA / xERA | 5.70 / 8.56 |
| 4.41 / 4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 6.87 / 4.98 |
| 18.7 | K-BB% | 6.5 |
| 30.4 | GB% | 41.6 |
| .253 | BABIP | .314 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 98 | Location+ | 98 |
Rays vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
Rays vs Blue Jays Pick, Betting Analysis
This matchup features a pair of pitchers who are difficult to get a handle on right now.
For the second straight season, Ian Seymour began the year in the bullpen before a transition to the rotation, which seemed long overdue when he struck out 27 of 65 batters with just a pair of walks in 18 innings, but has proven much less successful over his last two starts:
6.1 IP – 32 BF – 8 H – 9 R (8 ER) – 3 HR – 5 BB – 7 K
Seymour’s 20.3 K-BB% dropped to 18.7% with those two outings, but still 23.5% since moving into a starting role. However, he’s also allowed eight barrels in those six starts with only 29.5% of his contact on the ground.
Last year, the Blue Jays were a nightmare for LHPs, but this year they own just an 80 wRC+ in that situation. The projected lineup is up to 99, but with a marginal .160 ISO. Not terrible, but not what you’d expect here.
That same projected lineup is also averaging a mere 71 wRC+ over the last 30 days, with only Luis Urias’s small sample above 116 and five projected Toronto bats no higher than a 61 wRC+.
The Rays have a below-average defense (-4 RP, -9 OAA) that breaks even with their standard lineup against RHP (1 FRV), assuming Nick Fortes in for Hunter Feduccia, who caught Wednesday night.
The Tampa Bay bullpen has gone from an early-season albatross to a current strength with the second-best estimators over the last month (3.69 FIP, 3.39 xFIP, 3.15 xERA) and 11th-best BARTOLO ranking (3.88 wFIP).
Shane Bieber’s first three starts off the IL compared to his last two:
- F3: 13 IP – 64 BF – 20 H – 13 R – 6 HR – 7 BB – 9 K
- L2: 10.2 IP – 44 BF – 9 H – 2 R – 1 HR – 5 BB – 10 K
While his velocity spiked up nearly a full mph above any of his first three starts in his fourth (93 mph), it dropped down to 92.3 mph last time out, still higher than any of his first three, though (avg 92.0).
Eight of his nine barrels were surrendered in his first three starts, but his hard hit rate has reached at least 40% in every start.
Bieber did reach a season-high 13.8 SwStr% against the White Sox last time out.
The offenses he’s faced have been middle of the league through all five starts, though the Rays may mark his toughest spot with a projected lineup averaging a 128 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 112 wRC+ against RHP this year.
A Toronto defense that’s stunningly average (2 RP, 4 OAA) boosts to 18 FRV with our projected lineup. BARTOLO ranks this their 3rd best bullpen with last 30-day indicators (4.02 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, 3.70 SIERA) ranking 8th.
By using season-weighted estimators, Seymour is nearly two runs ahead of Bieber, and the Rays are the clear play up to around -140.
However, we’re dealing with smaller samples (one in a starting role and one overall). Trusting BARTOLO’s projections still gives Seymour a slight edge.
With my normal threshold, the Rays would still be actionable up to around -115, but I tend to look for larger edges when dealing with projections because of smaller samples and will leave it as a lean for now, but it’s close.
Pick: Lean Rays ML at -105 or better
