The Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 28, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SN1.
The Orioles are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Orioles Pick: Blue Jays ML (+105 or Better)
My Blue Jays vs Orioles best bet is on Toronto to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | +108 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | -126 |
- Blue Jays vs Orioles moneyline: Blue Jays +108, Orioles -126
- Blue Jays vs Orioles over/under: 8.5 (-120 / -102)
- Blue Jays vs Orioles spread: Orioles -1.5 (+162), Blue Jays +1.5 (-196)
Blue Jays vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| Patrick Corbin (LHP, TOR) | Stat | Chris Bassitt (RHP, BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.86 / 5.37 | ERA / xERA | 5.51 / 4.84 |
| 3.95 / 4.26 | FIP / xFIP | 4.38 / 4.76 |
| 10.0% | K-BB% | 6.8% |
| 39.3% | GB% | 45.6% |
| .328 | BABIP | .354 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
Blue Jays vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview
The headline here is probably that I have Chris Bassitt (4.24 Bot ERA – 4.82 xERA) rated less than a quarter run better than Patrick Corbin (3.96 FIP – 5.35 xERA).
Yes, THAT Patrick Corbin.
The estimator range on Corbin is wider, with a 10 K-BB% and an unspectacular contact profile. His 3.85 ERA is driven by the fact that just 33% of his barrels have left the yard. You see it in the extremes with his FIP and xERA. That's what such a wide gap between those two indicators almost always means.
Since last season, RHBs have a .341 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against him.
Baltimore is likely to counter with Gunnar Henderson and eight RHBs, but only two of those projected (Coby Mayo 125, Taylor Ward 140) exceed a 110 wRC+ vs LHP since last year, and only two more reach 100.
Chris Bassitt has gone beyond five innings in just one of his last four starts and completed six innings just twice this year. He’s allowed at least three runs in six of 10 outings.
His 6.8 K-BB% is his worst since 2016, and he has a 5.51 ERA with only six barrels allowed (3.7%).
I don’t think that’s sustainable, but we think his .354 BABIP is going to regress. I say think because it’s up to .328 over the last three seasons. It's possible this is just the end.
And LHBs have just torched him for a .364 wOBA and .348 xwOBA since 2025. That’s up to a .401 wOBA just this year alone.
The Blue Jays are only likely to send up five LHBs against him, but also five batters with a wRC+ above 110 vs RHP since last season and only two below 98.
The Blue Jays gain back offensively the little that they lose in the starting pitching matchup.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis
Toronto also has a slight edge defensively (8 FRV) if projected lineups via Rotowire hold up, and half-run better bullpen estimators over the last 30 days.
I don’t understand why they’re the dog here and see a playable edge down to about +105.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+105 or Better)
