The Houston Astros host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 21, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SN1.
Find my MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Astros pick: F5 Under 4 -110 (Play to -120)
My Blue Jays vs Astros best bet is F5 Under 4. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Astros Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +118 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
Blue Jays vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) | Stat | RHP Hunter Brown (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 2.49/3.36 | ERA /xERA | 1.50/3.02 |
| 3.86/3.91 | FIP / xFIP | 2.37/3.02 |
| 0.71 | WHIP | 0.83 |
| 18.7 | K-BB% | 19.5 |
| 29.4 | GB% | 58.3 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 115 |
| 111 | Location+ | 104 |
Ziefel’s Blue Jays vs Astros Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Struggling Bats Likely to Continue
The Toronto Blue Jays come into this series stumbling a bit, having dropped their last two games against the Seattle Mariners. Those losses were the result of rough bullpen outings and some untimely hitting.
However, the issue on Monday is that their hitting struggles are likely to continue for at least the first half of this game. The Blue Jays have been putting the ball in play a ton, just not with much power, as they rank last in barrel rate but are second in xBA.
That combination of results feed right into the strengths of Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown. Brown has looked phenomenal to start the year, ranking in the top 10 percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed.
His vastly improved command has led to a big jump in ground-ball rate, and that should continue on Monday.
Look for another efficient outing from Brown against Toronto.
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Offense Cold, But Pitching Heating Up
As for the Houston Astros, they come into this series off a tightly contested bunch of games against the San Diego Padres. The final two games of that series went well under the total, and with a similar scoring output expected on Monday, the Astros aren't in line to break out offensively.
It hasn't been the best start to the season for Houston at the dish, as it's in the bottom third of the league in most of the contact metrics while hitting just .222 as a club.
On Monday, the Astros will have to contend with Kevin Gausman, who's found early-season success in a way we haven't seen from him before.
After an up-and-down 2024 campaign in which we saw his strikeout rate fall drastically, Gausman seems to have adjusted and become a fly-ball pitcher. His fly-ball rate is 45%, which is a huge jump from his career average rate of 24.6%.
He's gained confidence in throwing his fastball up in the zone, and it's worked thus far, as hitters are batting just .191 off his four-seamer.
As long righties don't pull the ball, Gausman should be in line for success in Houston, as the Astros are middle of the pack in fly-ball rate and aren't driving the ball much.
Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
While there's plenty of pop in each of these lineups, they both have to round into form. Meanwhile, the opposing starters' strengths play right into the issues each lineup is having.
Look for both Brown and Gausman to have success early on in this one and keep the scoring to a minimum the first few times through the order.
Take the first five under.
Pick: F5 Under 4 -110 (Play to -120)
Moneyline
I'm avoiding the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also avoiding the run line.
Over/Under
I'm taking a derivative of the under.
Blue Jays vs Astros Betting Trends
