The Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 5, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Rays are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Rays Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Rays Pick: Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 Outs
My Blue Jays vs Rays best bet is on Drew Rasmussen's pitching outs prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Rays Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 7.5 108o / -132u | +110 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 7.5 108o / -132u | -130 |
- Blue Jays vs Rays moneyline: Blue Jays +110, Rays -130
- Blue Jays vs Rays over/under: 7.5 (+108 / -132)
- Blue Jays vs Rays spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-205), Rays -1.5 (+168)
Blue Jays vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Kevin Gausman (RHP, TOR) | Stat | Drew Rasmussen (RHP, TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.10 / 3.35 | ERA / xERA | 2.64 / 2.60 |
| 3.36 / 3.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.66 / 2.89 |
| 19.9% | K-BB% | 22.1% |
| 40.2% | GB% | 52.4% |
| .241 | BABIP | .200 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 108 | Location+ | 117 |
Blue Jays vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
This game features two good pitchers taking on two punchless lineups.
There have only been 63 homers hit between these two teams, pretty close to what the Yankees (57) have done by themselves. The Rays rank 25th among MLB lineups in home runs, while the Blue Jays rank 22nd.
In barrel rate, it's even worse. The Rays have the league's lowest barrel rate at 4.2%, and the Blue Jays rank 28th at 6.4%.
Kevin Gausman is in a good spot to succeed matchup-wise. He's a strike thrower, rarely giving away free passes (5% BB), but his arsenal is limited in a way that makes it pretty easy to sit fastball and hit a ball a long way when it's not located well. Gausman's heater has given up three homers so far with a .332 xwOBA against it.
And something just hasn't been going well for Gausman lately. After opening the season with 21 strikeouts in two outings, he has averaged just 3.8 strikeouts per game across the past five. Pair that with the Rays' 19% team strikeout rate, and it's not a great spot for Gausman to rack up whiffs. He'll have to find success on balls in play in this one, but it's balanced out by the fact that the Rays rarely hit the long ball.
The Blue Jays' offense has been a struggle. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has a .331 average, but the power stroke isn't there with only two homers. And nobody else has an OPS above .800, so they've left him to do most of the work himself. And that hasn't worked out.
George Springer has missed time, but he should be in the lineup for this one. Still, his .607 OPS shows that he's been miles away from repeating his late-career breakout last year.
It's a high-contact lineup, but not an imposing one.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
It's Drew Rasmussen for the Rays, pitching at home.
Rasmussen has a career 2.47 ERA in Tropicana Field with a 0.89 WHIP. Sparkling numbers for the righty. He goes right after hitters with a 33% Ball rate and a 4% walk rate. He's not an elite whiff generator (11% SwStr), but his mixture of different fastball types and strong command gets his strikeout rate into a nice place. He's at 26% this year with four games over 5.5 strikeouts in six tries.
Rasmussen brings consistency you rarely see. He's in the zone and somehow constantly generating soft contact with a .258 xwOBA allowed this year. The splits are remarkable. He's given up a .193 xwOBA to righties this year, that's completely ridiculous. To lefties, it's higher, but still elite at .285.
Flipping it around to the Rays matchup with Gausman, there's not much to like. This is a team that hits a lot of balls on the ground at the top of the zone but doesn't hit much at the bottom. They're a very beatable lineup unlikely to put up crooked numbers.
Blue Jays vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
This is a tough game to bet on.
The offenses are extremely simple. They are elite at getting balls into play, but near the bottom of the league in racking up homers and extra-base hits. That can go a lot of different ways. Both offenses are subject to BABIP variance and coming up with those hits at the exact right time.
My projection model likes the Rays to win this one 4.4 to 4.2. That's well above the Over 7 if you can get that number at a reasonable price.
I'm also quite often attracted to Drew Rasmussen's pitching outs prop.
He's thrown 5, 5, 6, 3 2/3, 6, and 5 innings in his six starts. The Rays have let him go above 90 pitches in his last two outings, but they're very hesitant to let him go out for the sixth if he's above 80 pitches.
So I'll just bet on the basic math. Rasmussen has come up short of 17.5 outs in 73% of his starts dating back to last year.
It's not going to be the same rate moving forward, as he has fewer restrictions this year than last, but that's a stark number, and I think it gives us a nice edge.
Pick: Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 Outs (-102, FanDuel)
