We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
So far this season, I'm 43-30 betting on Triple-A ball, good for +25.89 units of profit.
Gwinnett Stripers @ Durham Bulls
Tuesday, 6:45 PM ET
Full disclosure: this is one of the most difficult weeks of the season to date to find value.
Most of my plays this week will likely come from finding spots where key guys are getting a day off, or pitching is overwhelmingly one-sided.
I do like the potential value on Salt Lake as I discussed earlier, and if I had to pick another team that’s probably going to have some big-time value spots this week, it’s the Durham Bulls, who were one of the worst teams in all of Triple-A in the first half.
Durham has some pitching, but the Bulls can’t hit. They haven’t made many appearances in my top-50 Triple-A hitter power ratings this season.
But that could change going forward, as Oliver Dunn (.918 OPS) cracked my ratings earlier this season with Charlotte, and the Bulls recently got Jacob Melton back from injury. Having Dunn and Melton at the top of the order should increase Durham’s chances to scratch a run across here and there.
If Durham can scratch a few runs across, the Bulls should win some games because their pitching staff is loaded.
Ty Johnson has been one of the best pitchers at the Triple-A level this season. Brody Hopkins was solid last week against Norfolk. That duo should start on Friday and Saturday, and I’d be willing to back either against one of Gwinnett’s lesser starters.
Durham also likes to mix in bullpen games, and if the Bulls stack the right arms together, they’d be worth a wager.
This is all relative to price, of course, but Gwinnett has gotten a lot of love from the oddsmakers in recent weeks. I’m hopeful that continues here so we can take a few shots with Durham, which always has a great home crowd and might feature a sell-out crowd or two during the holiday weekend.
Pick: Durham Bulls ML | Durham Bulls +1.5
Las Vegas Aviators @ Salt Lake Bees
Tuesday, 8:35 PM ET
I think there’s going to be some decent underdog value on Salt Lake this week, and I’ll be on the hunt for solid spot-and-price combinations to bet the Bees.
This is entirely a fade of Las Vegas, which I think can only regress after winning the PCL first half (clinching a playoff spot) and losing some of their best players to roster moves over the weekend.
The A’s calling up their young studs is nothing new, but this time the corresponding moves didn’t send anyone back or up to Las Vegas.
The A’s called up Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, whom I had as my top-rated position player in all of Triple-A in my rankings last week. They also recalled Darell Hernaiz and Kade Morris.
Normally calling up three guys like that would have someone notable sent back down, but the A’s don’t need to do that, as Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom both hit the IL while Jose Suarez is on the paternity list.
Michael Kelly was DFA’ed so he could end up back in Las Vegas, but he doesn’t move the needle.
I’ve yet to hear of anyone notable being called up from Double-A, so this is effectively Las Vegas coming into the week without three of their best players.
I downgraded Salt Lake when Denzer Guzman and Christian Moore were called up, but the Bees played better than expected in Albuquerque last week. What was most notable about that series is how loaded the Isotopes were with rehabbers, and, for the most part, Salt Lake was competitive on the road with a roster that is probably better than the one they will see this week.
Nelson Rada is turning into a superstar, and he will headline Salt Lake’s lineup.
Regarding the rotation, George Klassen and Caden Dana still have upside, and both are guys I would consider backing in the right spot. You could also back one of the veteran starters like Alek Manoah or Shaun Anderson if you can catch the +1.5 at a cheap price.
Salt Lake has enough respectable bullpen arms that, if the usage lines up correctly, the Bees will be a live underdog with any of the four starters above on the mound.
The deal breaker is Rada being in the Salt Lake lineup, but he plays pretty much every day, and if the pitching stacks up favorably (which it probably will since Las Vegas doesn’t have much pitching right now either), I think the Bees could be buzzing this week as a big dog on their home field.
Pick: Salt Lake Bees ML | Salt Lake Bees +1.5
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Durham ML (vs Gwinnett, 6:45 PM ET)
- Durham +1.5 (vs Gwinnett, 6:45 PM ET)
- Salt Lake ML (vs Las Vegas, 8:35 PM ET)
- Salt Lake +1.5 (vs Las Vegas, 8:35 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
