The Boston Red Sox host the Washington Nationals on July 1, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Red Sox are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction
- Nationals vs Red Sox Pick: Willson Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (-100)
My Nationals vs Red Sox best bet is on Willson Contreras to record over 1.5 total bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Red Sox Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 9.5 -120o / -102u | +122 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 9.5 -120o / -102u | -144 |
- Nationals vs Red Sox moneyline: Nationals +122, Red Sox -144
- Nationals vs Red Sox over/under: 9.5 (-1200 / -102u)
- Nationals vs Red Sox spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+136), Nationals +1.5 (-164)
Nationals vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| Andrew Alvarez (LHP, WSN) | Stat | Payton Tolle (LHP, BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 4-5 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 3.44 / 4.35 | ERA / xERA | 2.78 / 2.90 |
| 2.75 / 2.81 | FIP / xFIP | 3.18 / 4.08 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 17.2% |
| 55.0% | GB% | 34.4% |
| .378 | BABIP | .250 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 106 | Location+ | 96 |
Nationals vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
The Nationals and Red Sox will square off on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Fenway Park in Boston.
I’m especially excited for this southpaw pitching matchup between Payton Tolle and Andrew Alvarez.
Tolle has been dominant on the bump for Boston, running a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 71 frames.
Alvarez hasn’t been quite as good, but he’s running a 3.44 ERA. That said, his sample size has been really small (36 innings), so his metrics might be misleading. Additionally, Alvarez relies heavily on his off-speed arsenal, which could hurt him if he continues to struggle with command (10% walk rate).
Nationals vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
Therefore, I think the best approach to this game is to target some Red Sox player props. This could be a tough road start for Alvarez, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Fenway.
Alvarez’s best pitch is his curveball, which he throws around 30% of the time and has a 33% whiff rate. But his main secondary offering is his slider (27% usage), which has allowed a whopping .363 xwOBA.
That leaves him vulnerable to a hitter like Willson Contreras, who is slugging over .500 against sliders with a +5 Run Value.
Contreras is a patient hitter who lays off stuff out of the zone and works the count well, and I think that’ll force Alvarez to leave a slider over the heart of the plate, where he might pay the ultimate price.
Pick: Willson Contreras Over 1.5 Total Bases (-100)
