The Cincinnati Reds (22-21) host the Washington Nationals (21-22) on May 14, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Reds are favored by -156 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+134) on the run line. The Nationals are +132 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-162) on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs (-122 / -100).
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Reds Prediction & Pick
- Nationals vs Reds Pick: Nationals ML (+130 or Better)
My Nationals vs Reds best bet is on Washington to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Reds Odds, Run Line, Total
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +132 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -156 |
- Nationals vs Reds moneyline: Nationals +132, Reds -156
- Nationals vs Reds over/under: 7.5 (-122 / -100)
- Nationals vs Reds spread: Reds -1.5 (+134), Nationals +1.5 (-162)
Nationals vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| Foster Griffin (LHP, WSN) | Stat | Chase Burns (RHP, CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 2.12 / 4.10 | ERA / xERA | 2.11 / 3.12 |
| 4.08 / 3.86 | FIP / xFIP | 3.76 / 3.47 |
| 14.2% | K-BB% | 17.4% |
| 43.8% | GB% | 46.6% |
| .216 | BABIP | .237 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 102 | Location+ | 103 |
Nationals vs Reds Expert MLB Pick for Thursday
The Nationals will remain in the running to be the second-best team in the NL East, sitting ten games behind the first-place Braves. Everything after the Braves is a total jumble of teams, though.
On the mound for this gritty Nationals squad is left-hander Foster Griffin, who has looked brilliant in his first year in DC. Griffin spent the last few years in the KBO, where he regained his confidence. Now, he has a dazzling 2.12 ERA, but he’s due for regression with his 4.10 xERA and 4.08 FIP.
Still, Griffin is really solid. His 22% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate are about league average. He’s also great at generating soft contact, ranking in the 76th percentile among qualified pitchers in average exit velocity allowed.
Griffin relies heavily on his cutter, throwing it over 30% of the time to righties and lefties. He also features a low-90s four-seam fastball around 16% of the time to go with five other offerings.
In May, the Nationals' offense caught fire, ranking third in MLB with a 123 wRC+. They lead the league with a .223 ISO and are third in home runs in their last 11 games.
James Wood continues to develop into a star, while CJ Abrams is having the most consistent offensive season of his career.
Meanwhile, the Reds are on quite a cold streak right now, losing seven of their past ten games and falling to dead last in the NL Central.
On the mound is Chase Burns, who became the ace of the rotation since Hunter Greene went down with an injury in Spring Training. Burns, in his first full year in the bigs, is pitching to a 2.11 ERA. However, his xERA is a 3.12, and his FIP is a 3.76, which makes a sophomore skid seem inevitable.
Burns throws absolute gas, sitting at 98.3 MPH on his fastball — one of the highest average fastball velos in MLB. Control can be an issue for Burns, leading to a 3.06 BB/9 and 1.15 HR/9. He throws only three pitches, but his fastball and slider account for 93% of his usage.
I’m a bit worried for Burns in this matchup. We’ve seen this Nationals lineup hit for power lately, and Burns’s lack of put-away offerings can allow the Nationals to sell out for the heater.
While the Nationals' offense is having a great May, the Reds are on the opposite end of the spectrum. This month, Cincinnati ranks 25th in MLB with a 78 wRC+ and a 24% strikeout rate.
Adding JJ Bleday and his 178 wRC+ has given the Reds a nice jolt of energy. However, he’s a strict platoon bat. He’s been their best hitter for two weeks, so another Red will have to step up against Griffin.
How To Make Nationals vs Reds Picks and Best Bets
Both teams are more than capable of blowing leads — the Reds rank 25th in bullpen ERA while the Nationals rank 27th.
I’m not taking bullpens into account much for this handicap. Both are bad in the latter innings, so I’ll focus more on the lineup and pitching matchup.
Burns and Griffin are both due for regression, as I touched on. I think Griffin’s deep pitch mix will keep the Reds off balance. He’s far less predictable than Burns — and that’s a major advantage for the road underdogs.
I’ll take Washington here in what could be a high-scoring showdown.
Pick: Nationals ML (+130 or Better)
