The Cleveland Guardians will roll out right-hander Tanner Bibee for Game 2 of this AL Championship Series, while the New York Yankees will counter with right-hander Gerrit Cole on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
I'll be targeting two player props, plus a moneyline pick, for my Yankees vs Guardians Game 2 parlay.
Yankees vs Guardians Parlay for ALCS Game 2
- Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 Hits (+115)
- Guardians ML (+145)
Parlay Odds: +575 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Through 31 regular season starts, Bibee posted a 12-8 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His underlying metrics were equally strong as the right-hander ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
This success has continued into the postseason as Bibee sports a 2.08 ERA through two starts. We are going to specifically back Bibee in the prop market, considering that he ranked in the 61st percentile in whiff rate and 74th percentile in strikeout rate this year.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has surpassed in nine of his past 11 starts.
If we are backing Bibee to put together a strong outing, then some New York hitters are likely to struggle. Enter Anthony Volpe, who has failed to record a hit in six of his past nine games.
He possesses a .115 BA over that stretch.
These woes are likely to continue against Bibee, specifically because of the right-hander's ability to rack up strikeouts. I say this because Volpe struggles at avoiding the punchout, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both chase and strikeout rates this season.
Furthermore, Volpe has struggled with contact all season. He finished the campaign in the bottom third of the league in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
His numbers further decrease when facing right-handed pitching.
If we are backing Cleveland's starting pitcher while simultaneously fading a Yankees batter, then a correlated outcome would be for the Guardians to win this game.
I'm not sold that Cole is that much better than Bibee. This season, Bibee outranked the former in WHIP, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, the clear bullpen advantage goes to Cleveland. The Guardians' relief staff outranks New York's in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
That just leaves the hitting, an edge that goes to the Yankees. However, Bibee is capable of shutting this lineup down, and if we get to the final frames of this game with a close score, then I trust Cleveland's bullpen to finish it out.
