The Boston Celtics (24-15) and Miami Heat (21-19) will meet in the NBA on Thursday night. Tipoff from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Celtics are 2.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Celtics -2.5), with the over/under set at 234 total points. Boston is a -140 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Miami is +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Celtics vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, January 15.
Celtics vs Heat Prediction, Picks
- Celtics vs Heat pick: Tyler Herro Under 26.5 Points + Assists (-112)
My Heat vs. Celtics best bet is on Tyler Herro to record under 26.5 points + assists, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Celtics vs Heat NBA Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 234 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 234 -110o / -110u | +120 |
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Preview
This is a tough matchup for Tyler Herro against a Celtics team that plays a solid defense.
The one clear concern is that Boston does allow a high volume of 3-point attempts.
If Herro gets hot from deep, that’s the path where this bet could be in trouble.
Outside of that, though, there are a lot of really bad numbers for him in this spot.
From a profile standpoint, this is a bottom-10 assist matchup for Herro and a bottom-five field goal attempts matchup.
That points to decreased overall volume, which is key when we’re looking at a points-plus-assists combo.
Davion Mitchell being doubtful is worth noting, but that’s actually part of why I prefer the combo prop here.
For Herro to truly benefit from Mitchell being out, he’d need a meaningful boost either as a scorer or as a passer, and those two things tend to cannibalize each other.
Celtics vs Heat Betting Predictions, Analysis
I’m projecting Herro closer to 22.8 points + assists in this matchup. He did play 39 minutes last game, but that feels like a massive outlier based on how this Heat team has been playing.
I’m more comfortable projecting him around 32-33 minutes, even with Mitchell potentially out. Miami is just very deep, and they like to play a lot of different wing guys.
We’ve talked about Pelle Larsson, Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez, who is also questionable, and there are just a lot of bodies they’re comfortable giving minutes to.
On a normal night, we’re not projecting Miami’s main guys for much more than 31 or 32 minutes.
Because of that, this number feels a bit boosted by that 38-39 minute outlier. To get Herro over, you’d probably need to project him closer to 34 or 35 minutes, and I don’t really see that here.
It’s also worth noting that Herro’s assist rate actually goes down with Davion Mitchell off the floor. His usage does go up, but we’ve also seen those splits include minutes without guys like Bam Adebayo and Norman Powell.
So, I don’t think we’re suddenly getting a 32–33% usage version of Herro in this spot.
All things considered — tough matchup, reduced volume, and minutes concerns — Tyler Herro Under 26.5 Points + Assists is projecting pretty well against Boston.
Celtics vs Heat Best Bet
- Tyler Herro Under 26.5 Points + Assists (-112)
Celtics vs Heat Betting Trends
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