The Milwaukee Bucks (8-9) and Miami Heat (7-7) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in South Florida. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
Let's get into my Heat vs Bucks predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, November 26.
The Heat are 2.5-point favorites over the Bucks on the spread (Heat -2.5), with the over/under set at 223 total points. Miami is a -135 favorite to win outright, while Milwaukee is +115 to pull off the upset.
Bucks vs. Heat Prediction, Picks
Spread
I find both teams unreliable, so no thanks on the spread. You could talk me into either side, but I will likely pass.
Moneyline
The same goes for the moneyline. With a spread inside three points, the moneyline is playable in either direction, especially given that this could be a one-possession game. But if you don't like a side here on the spread, I don't know if you will on the moneyline either.
Over/Under
We've detected sharp money on the under. I played the Heat under 113.5 against Dallas last time, which is a better defense than Milwaukee. Miami was under until the end of regulation, where a Jimmy Butler dunk with a few seconds left sent the game into overtime. Thems the breaks. I'd probably instead go over or stay away, given Milwaukee's defensive profile this season, but I'll stay off of it because both sides can run cold and too inconsistent for my liking.
Bucks vs Heat Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 223 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 223 -110o / -110u | -135 |
- Bucks vs Heat spread: Heat -2.5
- Bucks vs Heat over/under: 223 points
- Bucks vs Heat moneyline: Heat -135, Bucks +115
Bucks vs. Heat Preview
I'll venture into the prop world for this game.
I've played Tyler Herro to score over 20.5 points on BetMGM at -110.
Herro tends to match up well with Milwaukee historically. Brook Lopez's drop-coverage defense behind the Bucks' suspect perimeter resistance means Herro can get to some pull-up jumpers, which is his preference. He's limited his deep mid-range jumpers this season, so we're mainly talking about walk-in threes and some floaters.
Herro has worked hard to alter his shot profile. He takes 22% of shots between three and 10 feet, up from 20% last year, while going from 16.6% to 5.3% of shots from 10-to-16 feet and 10% to 1.2% from 16 feet on (from two).
Herro takes 55.5% of his shots from three — he had never been over 48.4% prior.
So, the way Milwaukee is likely to defend him, combined with Herro's much-improved shot profile and current form, all point to why this should be an over.
Herro is averaging north of 24 points per game and has gone over 20.5 points in eight of 14, though just one in his past four games. He has cleared 20.5 points in five of 10 with an active Jimmy Butler. Against Milwaukee, he's over this in three of five, not including Game 1 of the 2023 playoff series, where Herro had 12 points in the first half before breaking his hand in the second quarter.
I've also played Bam Adebayo over 1.5 turnovers. Bam is one of my favorite players in the league, but 1.5 is too low — I found the number at Caesars.
Bam has amassed over 1.5 turnovers in four straight and six of his past seven games. He's a fantastic player because of his defensive versatility, scoring, and playmaking capabilities. Still, occasionally, that comes with butter fingers, even though he has a handle or a ballsy bounce pass that sailed out of bounds.
Lastly, I hit Brook Lopez over 4.5 boards at BetRivers.
It had some heavy juice, but opposing centers have been boarding effectively against Miami. Giannis Antetokoumpo will get his share, but Lopez has amassed five or more in four straight and six of his past seven games.
Bucks vs. Heat Prediction
I would never say you have to play a parlay, but if you could find a book with turnovers, see if the odds are worth it.
In a parlay, I'd probably keep the Herro leg to get 20 points and Lopez to get five boards, along with Bam's TOs.
Best Bet: Tyler Herro Over 20.5 points
Same Game Parlay: Tyler Herro Over 20.5 points + Brook Lopez Over 4.5 Rebounds + Bam Adebayo Over 1.5 TOs
Heat vs Bucks Betting Trends
