The Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) will visit the Golden State Warriors (48-34) in the NBA Play-In Tournament tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Warriors are 6.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies on the spread (Warriors -6.5), with the over/under set at 227 total points. Golden State is a -285 favorite to win outright, while Memphis is +230 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Grizzlies vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, April 15.
Grizzlies vs Warriors Prediction
My Warriors vs. Grizzlies best bet is on Memphis to win the first half, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Grizzlies First Half Moneyline (+170)
Grizzlies vs Warriors Odds, Picks, Spread
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 227 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 227 -110o / -110u | -285 |
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -6.5
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors over/under: 227 total points
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors moneyline: Grizzlies +230, Warriors -285
- Grizzlies vs. Warriors best bet:Grizzlies 1H ML (+170)
Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors NBA Preview
The Warriors are winning this game, I am almost certain of that. But the number on this is way too high.
I project this at Warriors -2.5. Maybe that’s light on how much better the Warriors have been with Jimmy Butler, even with an adjustment, or how bad the Grizzlies have been over the back half of the year, and after injuries to Jaylen Wells and Brandon Clarke.
We have the dominant history of home favorites in this spot. First off, favorites of less than three full possessions (7 points) are 13-8-1 ATS in the Play-In Tournament. The Under in such games is 15-7 (68%). Seven seeds are 6-2 in the tournament overall.
Favorites with a worse point differential than their opponent are 7-2 SU in the Play-In Tournament and 6-3 ATS (KillerSports). That tells us that when a team surges late and is favored despite a worse season-long profile, it’s directionally correct.
However, I think Memphis hangs here in the first half. The Grizzlies have played with urgency and confidence to start games recently, and have gone 4-1 ATS in the first half of their last five. The problem is that their fast pace and short rotation means they run out of steam and fade in the second half.
Grizzlies first half spread (+3.5) combined with Warriors second half spread (-3.5) is +276 as a same game parlay. I like this play a lot. Memphis leading at half and everyone wondering if the Warriors were going to miss the playoffs entirely before smacking Memphis in a typical Warriors third quarter sounds right.
One prop and it’s an easy, chalky one. Steph Curry 30+ points pushes the same game parlay to +455 at DraftKings.
The Grizzlies are trying to play Zach Edey a lot more since firing Taylor Jenkins. That’s a point of emphasis for GM Zach Kleiman. Edey’s been good. He even won his minutes in the last matchup vs. the Warriors.
But if you go back and watch the last matchup between these teams, Edey was constantly playing drop coverage against Steph Curry in pick-and-roll, retreating towards the rim.
Drop vs. Steph: Curry is going to light up Memphis and lead the Warriors to a win.
Grizzlies vs Warriors Betting Prediction
- Grizzlies First Half Moneyline (+170)
Grizzlies vs Warriors Parlay Picks
- Stephen Curry 30+ Points
- Grizzlies First Half Spread +3.5
- Warriors Second Half Spread -3.5
Parlay Payout: +455
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Warriors vs. Grizzlies Betting Trends
