The Miami Heat (26-28) and Milwaukee Bucks (31-24) will meet in the NBA this evening. Tipoff is set for 6:00 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Bucks are 5.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Bucks -5.5), with the over/under set at 221.5 total points. Milwaukee is a -225 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +185 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Bucks predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, February 23.
Heat vs. Bucks Picks, Prediction
Spread
My Bucks vs. Heat best bet is on Milwaukee to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Over/Under
My main pick for today's matchup is on the Bucks -5. However, I also lean toward the Over at 221.5 total points in this spot.
My Pick: Bucks -5 (-115)
Heat vs. Bucks Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 221.5 -110 / -110 | +185 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 221.5 -110 / -110 | -225 |
- Heat vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -5.5
- Heat vs. Bucks over/under: 221.5 total points
- Heat vs. Bucks moneyline: Heat +185, Bucks -225
- Heat vs. Bucks best bet: Bucks -5 (-115)
Heat vs. Bucks Preview
A rivalry renewed. The Bucks and Heat are familiar with one another after three different postseason matchups, twice with Miami ousting the favorite Bucks, and once with the Bucks smacking down the Culture on their way to the title back in 2021.
But things are very different now, with both teams having made major changes to their core identities by trading former All-Stars that helped define them through the years.
The question is whether the new-look Heat will match up as well with the new-look Bucks as the old versions did.
Miami is 4-6 SU and ATS since 2019-20 without Jimmy Butler vs. the Bucks. Compare that to 12-11 SU and 13-9 ATS with Butler. Butler has been a massive deciding force in this matchup. And he’s gone now.
The Bucks are 2-3 SU and ATS without Khris Middleton vs. Miami, compared to 15-13 SU (13-15 ATS) with him. He’s gone as well.
The Heat are an awful road team on the road this season, going 12-18-1 ATS. But hey are slightly better as a road 'dog at 7-8-1. Milwaukee is 17-7 SU as a home favorite but just 12-11 ATS.
The Heat have problems containing the three-point line this season, they are 22nd in opponent 3-point rate, and Milwaukee has been good at both generating and making their 3s. That causes problems when Miami is outmatched offensively.
I make this line Bucks -9.5, and with Milwaukee back to full strength except for the suspended Bobby Portis, I have to lay the points with Milwaukee.
The Heat simply haven’t demonstrated an ability to consistently beat the number on the road, and with the Bucks’ defense surprisingly stout this year, I like Milwaukee in this spot.
On the total, I lean towards the Over, as I make this 228.5. The Over in games where Milwaukee is a home favorite is right around the profitable line at 52.4%.
The Heat have good strategies they can use on Giannis Antetokounmpo, but ultimately, he’s still a beast and the supporting wing players should get loose for Milwaukee.
Bucks vs. Heat Best Bet
- Bucks -5 (-115)
Same Game Parlay Picks
- Bucks -5.5
- Over 221.5
Parlay Payout: +274
Bucks vs. Heat Betting Trends
