The Miami Heat (37-45) and Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) will square off in Game 1 of their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Cavaliers are 12.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Cavaliers -12.5), with the over/under set at 215.5 total points. Cleveland is a -800 favorite to win outright, while Miami is +550 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, April 20.
Heat vs. Cavaliers Picks, Prediction
My Heat vs. Cavaliers Game 1 best bet is on Miami to win the first quarter, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Heat First Quarter Moneyline (+225)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 215.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
- Heat vs. Cavaliers spread: Cavaliers -12.5
- Heat vs. Cavaliers over/under: 215.5 total points
- Heat vs. Cavaliers moneyline: Heat +550, Cavaliers -800
- Heat vs. Cavaliers best bet: Heat 1Q ML (+225)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Game 1 Preview
If this was the Jimmy Butler version of this Miami team, you’d have to look to the Heat in this spot. They’ve been underdogs in this spot before and won outright. But it’s important to note how much of the Heat success was very specifically against Milwaukee. Cleveland is built very differently.
There are things that work here for the Heat, defensively. Cleveland goes from the No. 1 offense by a good margin to the No. 9 offense against zone defense, which Miami runs more than any other team. There should be counters with Evan Mobley flashing to the middle and their three-point shooters, but that’s conceptual and not in execution.
Miami will switch screens pretty consistently, and Bam Adebayo’s ability to deter guards in isolation remains elite. And offensively, this Heat team has been red hot.
The problem is that the Cavaliers are still much better, in-depth and top-end. They have more weapons, more firepower, better continuity. The Heat offense will burn the nets down for a half and then suddenly dry up.
The problem with betting it is that I make this Cavaliers -12.5 on the dot. With those numbers, I lean towards Miami, but not enough to want to bet it. Miami is the best road first quarter team against the spread this season. That’s enough for me to get on board with a Heat 1Q moneyline bet at +210.
Heat vs. Cavaliers Betting Predictions
Darius Garland Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Darius Garland has to deal with Davion “Off Night” Mitchell, who has great matchup numbers against Garland, a zone defense that will deter him, and a switching defense that will look to take away his space.
Garland shot 33% on three-point attempts against the Heat this season, and averaged 2.5 makes per game.
Bam Adebayo Over 4.5 Assists
Adebayo averaged 4.7 assists in matchups against the Cavaliers this season.
The Cavaliers play mostly at-level coverage, pressuring Tyler Herro to make the short roll pass. Adebayo is a gifted passer in such situations, and in the pinch-post with space, which the Cavs’ bigs will give him.
Heat vs. Cavaliers Best Bets
- Heat 1Q Moneyline (+225)
- Darius Garland Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-140)
- Bam Adebayo Over 4.5 Assists (+112)
Cavaliers vs. Heat Betting Trends
