The Miami Heat (37-45) and Atlanta Hawks (40-42) will face off in the NBA Play-In Tournament tonight for a winner-take-all matchup for the Eastern Conference 8-seed. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Heat are 1.5-point favorites over the Hawks on the spread (Heat -1.5), with the over/under set at 221 total points. Miami is a -120 favorite to win outright, while Atlanta is +100 to pull off the upset.
Welcome to Play-In Tournament Night No. 3, or as I like to call it, “Someone’s Gotta Win Night." The Heat hope to have a chance to actually outlast Jimmy Butler in the playoffs, while the Hawks? Well, gosh, they’re just happy to be here.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Hawks predictions and NBA picks for Friday, April 18.
Heat vs Hawks Prediction, Picks
My Hawks vs. Heat best bet is on the Under at 221 total points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 221 (-110)
Heat vs Hawks Odds, Spread, Total
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 221 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 221 -110o / -110u | +100 |
- Heat vs. Hawks spread: Heat -1.5
- Heat vs. Hawks over/under: 221 total points
- Heat vs. Hawks moneyline: Heat -120, Hawks +100
- Heat vs. Hawks best bet:Under 221 (-110)
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Play-In Game Betting Preview
First off, let’s start off with the trend that no 10th seed has ever made the NBA playoffs in eight tries. They’re oh-fer. So, the Heat are up against (admittedly short) history in this spot.
In the second Play-In game, the favorite is 7-1 SU and ATS, with an average margin of victory of +12 and an average ATS margin of +8. The Eastern Conference 9-10 game favorites are even wider at +12 point differential and a +12.9 ATS differential.
Even more interesting is that teams with a better point differential are just 3-5 in these games. If you fall into the 8th seed Play-In, something has gone wrong along the way.
Miami has the better point differential. So yeah, it looks like the Hawks. But I’m taking Miami tonight.
The Heat have the experience and a slight coaching edge. I make this spread Heat -1, so it’s right in line with the current number. I like a bet for overtime as well here at +1500, but only for a fraction of a unit.
The better play, though, is the Under. The Under is 6-2 in 8th seed play-in games and on a six-game winning streak.
Miami put up 112 points in a blowout of the Bulls, which is like 140 for them. Atlanta, on the other hand, doesn’t match up well against the Heat’s switching scheme. Expect Miami to win in a slugfest.
Heat vs. Hawks Best Bet
- Under 221 (-110)
Heat vs Hawks Same Game Parlay
- Heat Moneyline
- Under 221
Parlay Payout: +230 (BetMGM)
Bonus Bet: Game to Go to Overtime (+1500, DraftKings)
Heat vs. Hawks Betting Trends
- 80% of bets and 71% of the money are on the Heat to cover the spread
- 58% of bets and 70% of the money on the moneyline are on the Heat to win outright
- 94% of bets and 94% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NBA public betting & money percentages page.
Heat vs. Hawks Injury Report
Heat Injuries
- PG Smith is out with achilles
- PG Jaime Jaquez Jr. (ankle) probable Friday.
Hawks Injuries
- C Clint Capela (personal) out Friday.
- SF Johnson is out for season with shoulder
- PG Bufkin is out with shoulder
For the latest on NBA injuries, be sure to check out our NBA Injury Report page.
