The Miami Heat (25-27) and Dallas Mavericks (29-26) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Heat are 1-point favorites over the Mavs on the spread, with the over/under set at 216.5 total points. Miami is a -118 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is -102 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Heat vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Thursday night.
Heat vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks, Odds
Spread
I will not be betting either side of the spread in tonight's contest.
Over/Under
Since opening at 221.5, the total for this matchup has fallen all the way down to 216.5.
I locked in my Mavericks vs. Heat best bet on the Under at 221 total points earlier today, with the best line currently available at bet365. As always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 221
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 216.5 -110 / -110 | -118 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 216.5 -110 / -110 | -102 |
- Heat vs. Mavericks spread: Heat -1
- Heat vs. Mavericks over/under: 216.5 total points
- Heat vs. Mavericks moneyline: Heat -118, Mavericks -102
- Heat vs. Mavericks best bet:Under 221
Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Preview
Tonight, the last two NBA Finals runner-ups will square off in Dallas. Last night, the Mavericks staved off a late Warriors rally for a 111-107 victory. Kyrie Irving led the way with 42 points and seven rebounds.
Irving was named an All-Star replacement for teammate Anthony Davis. He has certainly shown he deserves his ninth selection, as he is averaging 27.6 points, six rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game in February.
Irving has typically played 37+ minutes since Luka Dončić was injured on Christmas, including on back-to-back days. However, Dallas has not submitted an injury report yet, so keep an eye on his status tonight.
Meanwhile, Dallas fans are still coming to grips with the return from the Dončić trade, but Max Christie is proving himself to be a worthwhile piece.
Christie, who just turned 22 on Tuesday, is averaging 17 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in his first five games as a Maverick. He is shooting 51% from the field and 54.5% from behind the arc in that span and has a solid matchup against Miami.
The Heat squandered a 21-point lead in Oklahoma City last night as they were outscored 32-8 in the fourth quarter. It was their straight loss, and in that span, they are averaging 90.6 points per game. Guard Tyler Herro is heading to his first All-Star game this weekend.
However, heading into the break, he is averaging just 18.6 points while shooting 37% from the field and 24% from three-point range.
Tonight and in the second half, Miami will also need more from Andrew Wiggins, who was acquired in the Jimmy Butler trade. In his first two games with his new team, he is averaging 12 points while shooting 29% from the field.
Miami enters tonight's game in a comfortable position to be in the Play-In Tournament, but it is just half a game ahead of Atlanta for the ninth seed.
One player who may continue to pick up the slack is Bam Adebayo. The Miami big man has had a double-double in seven of his last 10 games. He will be able to find success against an undersized Dallas team tonight.
The Over is 7-3 in Dallas' last 10 games, but just 3-7 in Miami's last 10 games. Something will have to give tonight. However, with this being the last day before the All-Star break and both teams on the second night of a back-to-back, I am going with Miami's trend continuing.
Additionally, Miami is 29th in offensive rating and 27th in pace over their last 10 games. Five of Miami's last six games have failed to crack 210 points. There will have to be 222 for the Over to hit tonight.
A few players I will be backing tonight are Irving, Christie, and Adebayo. After last night's dazzling performance, Irving has scored 25 points in five of his last seven games. He has also scored 25 points in four of his last seven games against Miami and finished with 23 in two others.
Christie has scored 15 points in six straight games (five as a Maverick) and scored 16 against Miami last month in Los Angeles. Miami is 20th in 3-pointers allowed per game, which will benefit both Irving and Christie.
Missing Davis, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, and Dwight Powell last night, just one Dallas player above 6'7" saw the floor, and Kylor Kelley played just two minutes. That should lead to another strong performance from Adebayo.
He has averaged 21.3 points and 11.7 rebounds in his last 10 games and cleared 30 PR in eight of his last 10 games. If he gets there again, we will cash on another Mavericks game tonight.
Mavericks vs. Heat Best Bet
- Under 221 (-115)
Mavericks vs. Heat Parlay Picks
- Kyrie Irving 25+ Points
- Max Christie 15+ Points
- Bam Adebayo Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +425
Mavericks vs. Heat Betting Trends
