The Los Angeles Lakers (3-2) and Houston Rockets (2-3) will face off in Game 6 of their first-round NBA playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The game will air live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Rockets are 3.5-point favorites over the Lakers on the spread (Rockets -3.5), with the over/under set at 205.5 total points. Houston is a -162 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is +136 to pull off the upset.
Read along for my Lakers vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Game 6 on Friday, May 1.
Lakers vs Rockets Prediction
- Lakers vs Rockets pick: Lakers +3.5 (-112, DraftKings)
My Lakers vs. Rockets Game 6 best bet is on Los Angeles to cover the spread (+3.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Lakers vs Rockets Odds for Game 6
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 205.5 -110o / -110u | +136 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 205.5 -110o / -110u | -162 |
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Lakers vs Rockets NBA Playoffs Game 6 Preview
Los Angeles Lakers Betting Preview, Analysis
Do you want to read an absolutely bonkers stat? Teams that were trailing 3-1, won Game 5 on the road to make it 3-2, and then are home favorites in Game 6 — expected to win — are 2-8 SU and ATS since 2003. Compare that to 73-54 (57%) SU in all other Game 6s as a a home favorite.
The Rockets have turned the tide, and the Lakers’ shooting has steadily gotten worse.
The Lakers are actually getting better shots as the series progresses, but they’re missing more now than they made when they were taking tougher shots early.
Houston Rockets Betting Preview, Analysis
The Rockets have broken the mold its been all season.
Houston shot 40 three-pointers in Game 5, and they have been one of the lowest-three-point-rate teams this season. The Rockets scored 1.025 points per possession in the halfcourt, which is a huge uptick for a team that was 26th (0.959 points per pos.) this season.
It’s possible that the Rockets have made the adjustments and really found the answers to become an entirely different team. It’s also very likely they regress back to who they were.
Lakers vs Rockets Pick, Betting Analysis
Lakers +3.5
The Lakers struggled in Austin Reaves’ first game back. They were confused and uncomfortable. Now that they’ve shaken that out, it’s likely they adjust back.
The pathways for the Lakers:
- Houston’s offense regresses.
- The Lakers’ offense improves.
- LeBron James has a vintage "LeBron Game."
- Reaves bounces back with a dominant performance.
The pathway for the Rockets:
- Houston keeps over-performing offensively, AND…
- The Lakers’ offense keeps underperforming, AND…
- The young players continue to make threes at a high rate.
I just don’t buy it. I trust JJ Redick to make the adjustments and find a way to win this game before the series reaches Game 7.
Over 205.5
I'm not betting the total here, because I can’t trust the variance play — and I am skeptical of Houston’s offense.
But, there hasn't been any sharp pushback on the over after this line moved up with the public tickets and money backing the over.
Also, the over is 7-3 in games like this where the team has forced a Game 6 after being down at least 3-1.
Rui Hachimura Over 11.5 Points
Rui Hachimura has gone over 11.5 points in every game in the series — and he is more comfortable as a spot-up weapon around iso-centric players like Reaves.
So, I expect this scoring trend to continue for Rui in Game 6 tonight.
Matt Moore's Lakers vs Rockets Best Bets
- Lakers +3.5 (-112)
- Rui Hachimura Over 11.5 Points (-120)
