The Dallas Mavericks (9-7) and Miami Heat (6-7) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 6 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Heat are 3-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Heat -3), with the over/under set at 222.5 total points. Miami is a -150 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, November 24.
Mavericks vs. Heat Picks, Prediction
Spread
The Heat are in good position here against the Mavericks. They're favored by -3, as of this writing, but they're also 2-0 against the spread with a rest advantage. The Heat haven't played since Monday.
Moneyline
It's not Mavericks or nothing here, but it is close. Miami, then again, was a mediocre home team last season, which has carried over to this season, where the Heat are 1-4 against the spread and 2-3 straight up at home. The Mavs are just 3-4 straight up on the road, though; they're 3-2 straight up and 3-1-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Over/Under
I don't have a pick for the over/under in this game, but I will be betting on Miami's team total under.
My Pick: Heat Team Total Under 113.5
Mavericks vs Heat Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -112 | 222.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -108 | 222.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
- Mavericks vs Heat spread: Heat -3
- Mavericks vs Heat over/under: 222.5 points
- Mavericks vs Heat moneyline: Heat -150, Mavericks +125
- Mavericks vs Heat best bet: Heat Team Total Under 113.5
Mavericks vs. Heat Preview
The under is appealing to me, but I actually prefer just the Heat's team total under, which I took at under 113.5 on FanDuel. They haven't hit this mark at home at all season and they'll be opposite a top-10 defense. You don't have Luka Dončić in this game, but you have Jimmy Butler. The Heat play slower when he's out there, and three of the five times they hit this over were in the four games Butler sat.
Butler ultimately will make Miami a better team in totality — even if his on/off isn't great this season — but he also makes them slower offensively.
Mavericks vs. Heat Prediction
A prop I like in this game is P.J. Washington over 1.5 3s made. Washington been rough from 3 this year, shooting just 25% on 3.6 attempts per game. But he should get some opportunities from deep — more than the nine he has had in the four games he's played since returning from injury — against the Heat's zone defense.
It's more of a get-right spot than a momentum one — a risky one at that — but we're hoping he gets more volume here, because the game script dictates he should.
Best Bet: Heat Team Total Under 113.5
Heat vs Mavericks Betting Trends
