The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1) and Denver Nuggets (1-3) will meet in Game 5 of their first-round NBA playoff series this Monday. Tipoff from Ball Arena in Denver is set for 10:30 p.m. ET, with the game airing live on NBC and Peacock.
The Nuggets are 11.5-point home favorites over the Wolves in Game 5 tonight, with the over/under set at 224.5 total points. Denver is a -500 moneyline favorite to win and extend the series, while Minnesota is priced at +380 to pull off the road upset and advance to the next round.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Monday, April 27.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Pick
- Timberwolves vs Nuggets pick: Under 224.5 (-115)
My Nuggets vs. Timberwolves betting prediction for Game 5 is on the total to stay under 224.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 224.5 -105o / -115u | +380 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 224.5 -105o / -115u | -500 |
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets NBA Playoffs Preview
Timberwolves Betting Preview, Analysis
I want no part of the side; not even a little bit. The Nuggets look positively cooked. They quit in Game 4 pretty badly.
However, Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo are both sidelined for the Timberwolves now, and that causes problems for Minnesota.
If Aaron Gordon plays, I make the spread for this game Nuggets -8.5. So, I lean toward the Wolves in this spot.
But, there's also a chance Denver might respond by finally looking like themselves with their backs against the wall in Game 5 tonight.
Nuggets Betting Preview, Analysis
Denver is a 11.5-point road favorite in tonight's game. Road favorites trailing 3-1 in a series are 26-19 ATS (58%).
The Nuggets need their shots to start falling, which has been a problem lately. They have the worst 3-point percentage in the playoffs despite being one of the best perimeter shooting teams all season.
After the emotional letdown of losing Game 4, combined with Denver finally respecting itself after getting punked by Jaden McDaniels for three straight games, it’s an ideal spot for the Nuggets — but I just don’t trust them.
There’s no good answer here, so I’ll avoid the side in Game 5.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Picks, Best Bets
Total: Under 224.5
We’re tracking the majority of tickets and money on the over, but it’s moved down two points, indicating sharp action on the under.
When teams are down 3-1 and favored at home, the under is 25-18-2, 58%.
I project this total at 220, and think that Denver’s defense will be better against worse weapons with more time to prepare — and the Nuggets' offense may continue to struggle because they simply don’t look like a team that wants to fight.
Player Prop: Cameron Johnson Under 3.5 Rebounds
Cam Johnson has stayed under 3.5 rebounds in all three games in this series, and he simply hasn’t looked physical enough to make an impact in this particular matchup.
The Wolves are ravenous and athletic, and Johnson just looks slow and labored. He’s not making an impact in this series, and rebounds are an impactful metric against Minnesota.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 5 Betting Predictions
- Under 224.5 (-115)
- Cameron Johnson Under 3.5 Rebounds (-140)
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Betting Trends
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