It's not quite panic stations just yet for the Cavaliers and Lakers, considering the teams will play the next two games on their home court. However, with both teams facing a 0-2 deficit in their conference semifinals, they desperately need to win Game 3 if they're to have any chance of advancing to the next round.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Picks, Predictions: Saturday, May 9
- Pistons vs Cavaliers – Top Scorer: Donovan Mitchell (+176)
- Thunder vs Lakers – Top Rebounder: Deandre Ayton (+162)
Pistons vs Cavaliers Top Scorer Bet
Although Detroit's Cade Cunningham is looking like the best player in this series, I'm a bit surprised that he currently has the shortest odds (+112) to finish with the most points. Cunningham is averaging 24 points in the series compared to Cleveland's Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 27 points through the two games.
Mitchell is also attempting five more shots per game while shooting a higher field goal percentage (46.5% vs 39.4%) than Cunningham despite playing both games on the road.
A little home cooking and a return to Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse should serve Mitchell well, especially as James Harden continues to struggle to find his shot. The Cavaliers' point guard is shooting 32.1% in the series while going just 1-for-11 (9.1%) from behind the 3-point line.
With the bookmakers installing the Cavs as 4.5-point favorites, it's difficult to envisage a path to victory that doesn't involve Mitchell having a big game.
It doesn't hurt that Mitchell's numbers at home (28.7 PPG) are also slightly better than when on the road (27.0 PPG).
Given Mitchell's available odds to finish as top scorer are +176, we're getting almost 2-to-1 on our initial investment. Since I expect that number to come down as we get closer to tip-off, this is one wager you'll surely want to make sooner, rather than later.
Pick: Top Scorer: Donovan Mitchell (+176)
Thunder vs Lakers Rebounding Leader Bet
The Oklahoma City Thunder are essentially playing two centers with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein side by side in the starting lineup.
While the Thunder have clearly been the better rebounding team, when it's all said and done, there's always the risk that Hartenstein and Holmgren effectively cancel one another out in terms of which player will finish the game with the most boards.'
In comparison, the Lakers' Deandre Ayton faces less competition from his teammates and has led Los Angeles with 22 rebounds through the first two games. It's worth noting that Ayton is also the only Laker to even reach double figures in rebounds for the series.
The Lakers don't have a ton of options because most of the frontcourt players on their roster are more like stretch fours.
Thus, we're seeing a scenario where Ayton has almost no choice but to be the primary rebounder by default.
Los Angeles has lost its past four games against OKC by 18 or more points and six of its last seven games by 16 or more. Even if Game 3 results in a blowout, I'd expect the Lakers to hold out as much hope as possible before deciding to empty their bench.
In contrast, we could see the Thunder pull their starters much earlier, meaning Hartenstein and Holmgren won't be on the court to challenge Ayton for rebounds.
There's certainly a script here for Ayton to finish with the most boards, and with his odds at +200, the Lakers center is worthy of consideration.
Pick: Top Rebounder: Deandre Ayton (+162)
