Saturday, December 21 features an exciting NBA slate with matchups, including the Sacramento Kings hosting the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors visiting the Minnesota Timberwolves. Let's take a look at my best bets for the Saturday slate in the NBA based on my projections and handicaps.
Lakers vs. Kings
Saturday, Dec. 21
6 p.m. ET
NBCS-CA
Lakers ML +180
- First, the bad news. Teams in the Kings’ spot, playing a team twice in three days after losing as a home favorite, are 24-11 (69%) SU since 2020 when the league introduced more of these “baseball series” style sets. Also, teams in that spot are good ATS, going 16-11-1 the first three years of these games, but just 2-4 last season. It’s 1-0 ATS this season.
- However, I make this line Lakers -1.5 as I did the other night. Much of that is due to the Kings’ woeful homecourt performance this season. But even if I apply a standard homecourt adjustment, I still make this Kings -2.9, putting them within range here.
- The Lakers aren’t good on the road ATS (33.3%), but the Kings are worse at home this season (28.6%).
- Domantas Sabonis dominated Anthony Davis for a long time, but he’s lost the last two matchups this season.
- The Kings play opponents the most in the league in halfcourt defense, which is a credit to their transition defense. The problem is their halfcourt defense is bad, allowing the 7th-worst mark.
- In their matchup Friday, the Kings got the edge in halfcourt, making it a win the Lakers got out of script.
- LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable; wait to make sure they will both play. If either is out, this isn’t worth it.
- I don’t want the spread here. In the last two seasons, the Lakers have won outright when they cover as a dog 74% of the time. This is a value play on the moneyline if LeBron and AD play.
PICK: Lakers ML +180
Jazz vs. Nets
Saturday, Dec. 21
7:30 p.m. ET
YES
Over 220.5 points, Nets -2.5
- Brooklyn is 3-1 SU as a favorite, 2-2 ATS. It hasn’t happened much, but the market has largely made them the favorite correctly. One of the ATS losses was a 1-point win vs. the Hornets.
- In the last two seasons, Utah is 7-10 ATS on the road after a win.
- Utah has the worst defense in the league schedule-adjusted and in the halfcourt, while the Nets are 8th in halfcourt offense. They can score.
- Utah is 3-12 on the road as a dog of less than four points under Will Hardy.
- The over in games where Utah is a road dog is 50-29-2 (63%).
- I project this at Nets -3, for a small play on the Nets.
- I make the total 233.7 for one of my best bets of the day.
PICK: OVER 220.5, Nets -2.5
Grizzlies vs. Hawks
Saturday, Dec. 21
7:30 p.m. ET
FDSSE
Grizzlies spread -5
- No Ja Morant in this one, as he’s out with back soreness.
- Memphis without Morant this season: 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS.
- The line anticipated Morant being out making this only -2 at open, and then moving from -1.5 to -1 when Morant was ruled out. If you can get the Grizzlies as dogs by tip, even better.
- The Hawks are 4-9 ATS at home this season, and just 7-6 SU.
- The Grizzlies are 33-27-1 ATS (55%) under Taylor Jenkins as road favorites.
- Western Conference teams are 52-35-1 (59.8%) ATS as road favorites vs. Eastern Conference teams the last three seasons.
- A warning: Atlanta is 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS against teams with a 60% win percentage or better. (0-2 vs. Western Conference teams.)
- Without Morant I still make this Grizzlies -5.
PICK: GRIZZLIES SPREAD -5
Knicks vs. Pelicans
Saturday, Dec. 21
8:00 p.m. ET
NBA TV
Knicks -8
- Tom Thibodeau is 31-20 ATS with the Knicks as a road favorite.
- I make this Knicks -13 with the Pelicans’ above-average homecourt.
- The Pelicans are 1-0 SU and 4-7 ATS this season against teams with a win percentage above 60 percent.
- The Pels have the 4th-worst defense against pick and rolls including passes this season, via Synergy Sports. The Knicks have the second-best pick-and-roll offense, averaging a 112 offensive rating in those sets. It’s a huge advantage.
- On a basic level, the Knicks have the 2nd best eFG% in the league, the Pelicans give up the third worst. I have no idea how the Pels are going to get stops.
PICK: KNICKS -8
Celtics vs. Bulls
Saturday, Dec. 21
8:00 p.m. ET
NBCS-BOS
Under 242.5 points
- Spread is a stay-away for me. I make this Celtics -7 on power rating, but the spot is terrible for the Bulls. You just beat Boston in their building where they’re weak and now face them at home when the Celtics are elite on the road and elite off a loss. I lean heavily Celtics.
- The under, however, looks great.
- This got bet up from the number I got it at at 240 to 244.5 then bet back down to 242.
- The under in Celtics road games is 67% this season, in large part because they have the 2nd-best defense on the road compared to 14th at home.
- The previous game went just under the closing number, but that was partially thanks to a bad shooting night from the C’s. The Bulls, on the other hand, shot the lights out.
- I make this all the way down at 230. Chicago is 2nd in fastest offensive possession length, but Boston is 29th.
- I expect better defense from the Celtics and an under.
PICK: UNDER 242.5
Warriors vs. Wolves
Saturday, Dec. 21
8:00 p.m. ET
NBCS-BA
Warriors ML +125
- It’s a bounce-back spot for both teams with the Wolves in the aftermath of their old teammate Karl-Anthony Towns destroying them at home and the Warriors coming off maybe the worst performance of the Kerr era against the Grizzlies
- In just the recent Warriors era since 2021-22, the Warriors are 4-1 SU and ATS after losing by more than 30, 7-5 SU, and 8-4 ATS after losing by more than 20.
- The Warriors have a lot to figure out, but the Wolves seem fundamentally broken after that loss to the Knicks.
- This is another where I don’t want the points, just a small play on the Warriors ML.
PICK: Warriors ML +125
Pistons vs. Suns
Saturday, Dec. 21
9:00 p.m. ET
AZFamily
Over 224.5 points
- Phoenix’s defense is in freefall and I want to bet against that.
- I make this 232.7 on season projections.
- The market disagrees, with this line moving down a point from 225.5.
- It’s a small play, but I continue to think Phoenix’s defensive issues and the Pistons’ problems with turnovers will push this over.
PICK: OVER 224.5
