The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 7-game slate this Wednesday, and I've locked in a total of five picks spanning three of tonight's contests — including bets for Timberwolves vs. Magic, Trail Blazers vs. Spurs and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Wednesday, April 8.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Wednesday, April 8
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Timberwolves vs. Magic Spread & Total Picks
Timberwolves +6.5
The Wolves are trying to lock up a playoff spot; they’re in with a win. The Magic are just trying to hang on for dear life in the play-in race.
It doesn’t feel like it, but the Wolves are actually really good short-handed. Without Jaden McDaniels or Anthony Edwards this season, the Wolves are 14-9 SU and ATS. That’s promising with Minnesota on a back-to-back here after cruising to a win vs. the Pacers.
The Magic's offense remains tepid, and Minnesota’s offense has enough weapons to piece together some points to find a way to hang within the number, if not win outright.
I project this at Magic -4.4; a much more reasonable number for an Orlando team that is still carrying market value for some reason despite their foibles.
The market line on this, built off power ratings at Inpredictable.com derived from the spreads of the teams with a healthy 2.5-point homecourt adjustment puts this at pick ‘em.
At that price, I’d be on the Magic — but instead, Orlando is laying 6.5 points to a Western Conference team in the midst of a desperate seeding race with a chance to lock up a playoff spot? Minnesota is also 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS this season on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Wolves aren’t world-beaters without Ant and McDaniels (assuming they don’t play) but Orlando simply continues to be a team worth fading; it’s been over a month since they covered the spread in back-to-back games.
Over 228.5
A sneaky thing this season is that Minnesota and Orlando's defenses have both slid a little bit.
Both teams are above league-average in pace, and both teams have had problems with system offense.
The bigger issue is transition; I’m projecting 50 points in transition alone in this one, giving the halfcourt offenses a lower bar to clear. I’ll take the over.
Pick: Timberwolves +6.5, Over 228.5
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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Spread Prediction
Grizzlies +22.5
Denver hopes to keep its streak alive and secure the first 10-game winning streak in the Nikola Jokic era. The Grizzlies are playing a large number of guys whose names I do not recognize and will have to Google mid-game.
What could be better than betting on this game?
OK, put simply, you just have to hold your nose and bet this. The Nuggets have only won nine games this season by more than 20 points. They just do not win games like this. They struggled with a very mediocre Blazers offense on Monday.
There’s no way for the Nuggets to scout this game. How do you possibly come up with a game plan for a team that basically met one another last week?
There’s no way to A.) get up for this game, B.) plan for this game, and C.) not look ahead to Friday’s matchup with OKC which could be a 3-seed clinching game for them.
This is a great lookahead spot. I loved the Blazers on Monday vs. Denver because it was a letdown spot for Denver coming off the Spurs game.
I like this one because it’s a lookahead spot — and quite simply, the Nuggets should not be favored by 20 over anyone. They’re a great team, but they are not a team that profiles as one that blows out its opponents.
Memphis has only lost by more than 20 nine times this season as well, despite their tanking and injuries and unnecessarily trading a former DPOY and core component at age 25.
There’s nothing in either team’s profile to suggest that this spread should be this high, no matter who suits up for Memphis.
This line is an abomination against the betting gods, and we must condemn it by taking the 'dogs here.
Over 244.5 (Lean)
I project this under, but I can’t touch an under with the Nuggets right now.
Denver's defense is abysmal, especially from three-point range, and the Grizzlies hit 29 threes the other night vs. the Cavs (and lost).
The Nuggets' offense is incredible, and the Grizzlies literally have no bigs to stop Nikola Jokic.
I lean over, but my projections make this an under — but also, I don’t know what to do with any projections for this tanking Memphis team.
I’ll stay away from the total and just stick with the Grizzlies.
Pick: Grizzlies +22.5
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Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Spread & Total Bets
Trail Blazers +4.5
Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama are both doubtful for this game, and I make that a whopping 8.4-point adjustment to the power rating for these two teams.
The Blazers are 17-12 this season as underdogs of more than four points — and without Wembanyama, Portland has an advantage in size and in the frontcourt.
Portland is the 2nd-worst 3-point shooting team in the league, but they are shooting better since the All-Star break, especially Toumani Camara, which can give them the ability to hang offensively with the Spurs.
I make the Blazers small favorites in this game, which is likely too much of an adjustment, but it does suggest the line is off with the Blazers more than three-point dogs.
Portland needs this game for its lungs, as the Blazers try to scrap their way to the 8-seed so they can get two chances at getting into the playoffs — while the Spurs are basically locked into the 2-seed and don’t need to push it.
These two teams actually played with Wembanyama out, in San Antonio, back in January — and the Blazers won outright.
The Spurs don’t have the depth to just run roughshod over a motivated Portland team.
Portland’s perimeter defenders are a perfect counter to De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper — and Portland allows the 6th-lowest three-point rate to its opponents.
The Blazers will make this game ugly and close enough to hang, or pull off the win outright if San Antonio decides to punt with its seeding all but assured.
Under 230.5
It should come as no surprise that I also like the under here. These are two teams that put defense first.
This season has not been good for fading teams who put up shooting performances like the Blazers did Monday night in a loss to Denver — but still, I can’t help but expect some regression to the mean.
I project this total at 225.3 and don’t see either team putting up big totals in what should be a physical battle.
Pick: Trail Blazers +4.5, Under 230.5
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