The Pistons and Thunder have both looked the part of No. 1 seeds in the second round. While the Pistons took a tougher path to get there, they go for a 3-0 lead this afternoon in Cleveland. However, the Cavaliers are favored to get on the board in the series. Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley will look to lead the way.
Meanwhile, the Thunder have not gotten their usual scoring production from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this series. To this point, it has not been needed as Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell have stepped with SGA playing as a facilitator. The trio will look to lead the Thunder again as they look for a 3-0 lead in Los Angeles.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Saturday, May 9.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide: Saturday, May 9
  |   |
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Pistons-Cavaliers
The Angle: Mitchell & Mobley Help Cavs Avoid 0-3 Hole
Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points
In his playoff career, Mitchell has averaged 27.8 points per game. In his first two years as a Cavalier, he averaged 29.6 points per game. While he is still averaging 24 points per game this postseason, he uncharacteristically failed to crack 25 points in six straight games. He ended that streak with 31 points on Thursday night, but despite his efforts, the Cavaliers lost by double digits again and failed to reach 100 points.
He has not gotten much help from James Harden in this series. Though he cashed his points line with 22 points in Game 1, he needed 13 points in the fourth quarter to do so and still finished 6-for-15 from the field. He followed that up with 10 points on 3-for-13 from the field in Game 2. Jarrett Allen only scored two points in Game 1, while Mobley scored nine points in Game 2.
In a must-win game on his home floor, I expect Mitchell to come out aggressive. After the Cavaliers dropped Game 1 to the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year, Mitchell scored 48 points in Game 2, 43 points in Game 3 (a win), and 35 points in Game 5 while averaging 34.2 points per game in the series. He averaged 25 field goal attempts in that series, and he has taken at least 20 field goals in each of his last four games.
Additionally, Mitchell has averaged 29.1 points in his last nine games against the Pistons. He has scored 30 points in four of his last five games against them, and the Cavaliers will need him to get to 30 again today.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Pistons Player Prop Overs
Evan Mobley 4+ Assists
Mobley was not particularly active in Game 2 as he had nine points and one rebound. However, he was effective as a passer, finishing with four assists. Mobley has recorded nine assists in the first two games of this series, and he has covered this line in each of his last three games overall.
Mobley has had 15 potential assists in the first two games of this series, which tracks with his history against the Pistons. Over his last 14 games against the Pistons, he has averaged 4.1 assists and 7.1 potential assists. He has recorded four assists in 10 of those games, including eight of the last nine matchups.
While Harden has recorded the lion's share of the assists since arriving in Cleveland, Mobley has actually averaged more assists per game than Mitchell in the playoffs and is second on the team. If Mitchell focuses on scoring, that trend may continue as a couple of his baskets may be assisted by Mobley.
Pick: Evan Mobley 4+ Assists
Ausar Thompson Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
One thing that may help both Mitchell and Harden get going is if Ausar Thompson spends more time on the bench. That may be the case if Thompson continues to stay in foul trouble. Thompson has picked up nine fouls in the first two games of this series. In Game 2, he was limited to 12 minutes through three quarters due to four fouls, and it was in the third quarter that Mitchell got going, scoring 11 of his 31 points.
When Thompson gets into early foul trouble, head coach JB Bickerstaff does not always trust him to avoid fouls and leaves him on the bench. That also limits Thompson from filling up the stat sheet like he is certainly capable of.
Thompson is averaging 8.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game in the playoffs. While he is averaging over 11 RA per game, he has only actually recorded 11 RA in four of his first nine playoff games. He played 30 minutes or fewer in three of the five games in which he went under this line.
While fouls vary from game to game, the primary defender on Harden is always at risk of getting in foul trouble, and Mitchell said he may need to flop more as well. If Thompson gets in foul trouble again, it will be difficult for him to cover his RA line.
Pick: Ausar Thompson Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Threes Made
In the regular season, the Cavaliers ranked 23rd in 3s and 27th in 3-point percentage defense. It has carried over into the playoffs as JaKobe Walter was a Raptor who took advantage last round, while Duncan Robinson is taking advantage of their perimeter defense now. Robinson has made five 3s in each of the first two games of this series.
On a Pistons team that lacks perimeter shooting, Robinson has become essential to space the floor for Cade Cunningham. He has made three triples in seven of nine games this postseason, including two of three on the road. Robinson is averaging 3.2 makes per game on 7.7 attempts, shooting 42% from deep.
If he can maintain that efficiency on that volume, he should make three triples today. He may also get to his ladder again as well.
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+947)
- Donovan Mitchell 25+ Points
- Evan Mobley 4+ Assists
- Ausar Thompson Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
- Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Threes Made
Compounding Angle (+4570)
- Donovan Mitchell 30+ Points
- Evan Mobley 4+ Assists
- Ausar Thompson Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
- Duncan Robinson 5+ Threes Made
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Thunder vs. Lakers
The Angle: Thunder Take a 3-0 Series Lead
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ Assists
The Thunder have taken a 2-0 lead in this series without a dominant performance from their MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored just 40 points in the first two games of the series. While most would not call the Lakers a strong defensive team, and SGA dealt with foul trouble in Game 2, they have kept him under 30 points in four straight games, and he is averaging 28.2 points in his last 12 games against them.
The Lakers sent a bunch of blitzes and traps at him to force the ball out of his hands, which led to six assists in Game 1. While foul trouble messed up his stat line in Game 2, SGA has recorded six assists in 10 of his last 12 games against the Lakers, averaging 6.7 per game. He has also recorded six assists in nine of his last 10 games overall, four of which have been against the Lakers. He has averaged 13.3 potential assists in that span, and a 46% conversion rate would get him to six assists again.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ Assists
Chet Holmgren 20+ Points
While the Thunder have a deep team in general, Holmgren is one reason they have not yet needed SGA's usual scoring numbers in this series. He has scored 24 and 22 points in the first two games of the series. Dating back to the Phoenix series, he has scored 22 points in three straight games while averaging 23.3 points.
Holmgren's scoring uptick does coincide to a degree with Jalen Williams being sidelined again. He has had a 40% hit rate covering his points in the last 10 and 20 games with Williams active. Without him, that hit rate increases to 60% over his last 10 games and 50% over his last 20 games.
The recent uptick coincides with him knocking down his threes, as he made two triples in each of the last three games. Dating back to the regular season, he has made two 3s in seven of his last nine games. He is also shooting 48% from deep in the playoffs, and he has a favorable matchup when sharing the floor with Isaiah Hartenstein. The Lakers were 27th in 3-pointers allowed to power forwards in the regular season.
Pick: Chet Holmgren 20+ Points
The Correlated SGP: Holmgren, SGA, Mitchell Overs
Ajay Mitchell 15+ Points
While Holmgren moves up to the second option when Williams is out of the lineup, Ajay Mitchell slides into Williams' role. When Williams went down, I was actually on Mitchell's under because of the fewer shots available, but he ended up with 14 points. Since he has scored 15 points in four straight games and 18 in each of the last three.
With Williams, he averages 11.9 points per game and reaches 15 at a 33% rate. Without him, he averages 15.6 points per game and gets to 15 at a 55% clip. He also sees a six percent increase in usage when Williams is out of the lineup.
In this series, a Lakers team that already lacks many strong perimeter defenders will have to devote a ton of attention to Gilgeous-Alexander. That gives Mitchell better matchups, which he has already taken advantage of. He is averaging 19 points and five assists in 29 minutes through the first games while shooting 50% from the field. He should finish around 15 to 18 points once again.
Pick: Ajay Mitchell 15+ Points
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+499)
- Chet Holmgren 20+ Points
- Ajay Mitchell 15+ Points
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6+ Assists
Compounding Angle (+1334)
- Chet Holmgren 20+ Points
- Ajay Mitchell 18+ Points
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ Assists
