The Timberwolves have made a point of being physical with Victor Wembanyama in this series. However, things reached a breaking point when Wembanyama received a flagrant 2 and was subsequently ejected.
The two will battle again in Game 5 as the series shifts back to San Antonio, where the Spurs may also need another big game from Dylan Harper.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Tuesday, May 12.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 5
The Angle: Wembanyama & Reid Battle After Scuffle Last Game
Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points
Wembanyama had a historic performance in Game 3, but he did not get the opportunity to follow up on it because of the early ejection. He may be feeling like he let his team down as he was unavailable when Minnesota rallied to victory in the fourth quarter and evened up the series. However, the Spurs will need him to quickly move on with a pivotal Game 5 ahead.
Even with Sunday's ejection, Wembanyama has scored 25 points in four of his last seven games against Minnesota. He is averaging exactly 25 points in that span, which I am taking him for tonight. He has scored 30 points in three of those games, including 39 points in Game 3.
Wembanyama's minutes have been a topic of discussion in this series as he does not approach 40 minutes too often. However, fatigue should not be an issue, considering he played 13 minutes on Sunday. If he does play 40 minutes, though, he should not have much difficulty approaching 25 points.
After a rough Game 1, Wembanyama appeared to quickly figure things out as he scored 19 points in three quarters in Game 2 before his monster performance in Game 3. With Anthony Edwards getting healthier, I don't expect a blowout here, which means he should see Wembanyama playing all four quarters tonight.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Wemby, Reid & Harper Props
Naz Reid Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
With Sunday's performance, Reid has scored in double figures in seven straight games and in eight of 10 games this postseason. In this series, he is averaging 14 points per game after he scored 15 on Sunday. He also added nine rebounds, his fifth game with nine rebounds this postseason. He has averaged 8.5 rebounds per game in this series.
With his points and rebounds, Reid has covered this line with just those categories alone. However, he also has nine assists in the last two games. Typically, you don't expect many assists from Reid, but he averaged 2.2 per game in the regular season and had another four-assist game against Denver.
Though Reid comes off the bench, his minutes are secure because he is playable whether he is playing next to Rudy Gobert or Julius Randle- or with both of them. He has played 30 minutes in four of his last five games, and he has cleared this line in four of those games. He has also recorded 21 PRA in seven of his last nine games, and Minnesota will need him to get there again tonight.
Pick: Naz Reid Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Dylan Harper Over 11.5 Points
It usually is not wise to rely on young players in the playoffs, though it helps when your team has a young core like the Spurs do with Wembanyama, Harper, and Stephon Castle. Harper is not just any 20-year-old, as he was the No. 2 pick in last year's draft. However, he is still playing well beyond his years.
He scored 27 points in the first road playoff game of his career. He has been in double figures in six of nine playoff games, and he is averaging 13.8 points per game in his first playoffs. In four of those games, he has scored 15 points or more, including 24 points on Sunday.
Both of Harper's 20-point games this postseason came while Wembanyama was out or ejected. However, the Spurs may be without another key player as De'Aaron Fox was added to the injury report with right ankle soreness. Given the stakes of the game, I do expect Fox to play, but if he is limited, more will be needed from Harper tonight.
If Fox gets ruled out, Harper is a candidate to move into the starting lineup along with Keldon Johnson and Harrison Barnes. Between him and Castle, Harper is the more likely of the two to replace Fox's offense, so his ladder may come into play if Fox does get ruled out.
Pick: Dylan Harper Over 11.5 Points
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+370)
- Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points
- Naz Reid Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Dylan Harper Over 11.5 Points
Compounding Angle (+1500)
- Victor Wembanyama 30+ Points
- Naz Reid 25+ Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Dylan Harper 15+ Points
