The New York Knicks (2-0) will visit the Cleveland Cavaliers (0-2) for Game 3 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals this Saturday. Tipoff from Rocket Arena in Cleveland is set for 8:00 p.m. ET, with the game airing live on ABC.
The Cavaliers are 2.5-point favorites over the Knicks in Game 3 tonight, with the over/under set at 214.5 total points. Cleveland is a -136 moneyline favorite to win outright and keep the series competitive, while New York is priced at +114 to pull off the road upset and take a commanding three-game lead.
Let's break down my Knicks vs. Cavaliers Game 3 predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, May 23.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Prediction, Pick
- Knicks vs Cavaliers pick: Cavaliers -2.5 (-110)
My Cavaliers vs. Knicks Game 3 best bet is on Cleveland to cover the spread (-2.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 214.5 -118o / -104u | +116 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 214.5 -118o / -104u | -136 |
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New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Preview
Cavaliers Betting Preview: Generating Quality Shots
The reality is the Cavaliers now have to beat a tougher, smarter, and more talented team than Detroit (who the Cavs also trailed 2-0) in four of the next five games. I simply don’t believe that will happen.
However, are the Cavs really so much worse than the Hawks, who took two games from the Knicks, even if those games were coin flips?
Cleveland has been good at home, going 6-1 in the playoff. However, they do have a negative ATS differential at home.
The Cavs had terrible shot variance in Game 2. I don’t really care about that; there’s no guarantee it will or won’t regress in the next game, and no data to suggest a trend.
However, the way they ran offense did lead to a lot of quality looks. Their biggest problem wasn’t in the offensive design; it was the execution.
I’m not just talking about shooting either, although that was obviously bad. James Harden was hitting reads wide and high, which slowed the extra passes and allowed the Knicks to rotate. The Cavs would drive into nothingness rather than find the right sequence of kicks. These are fixable things.
Knicks Betting Preview: Due for a Minor Hiccup
All that said, I think this series is over. I've already accepted the fact that the Knicks are going to the Finals. They basically locked it in by winning last game to take a 2-0 lead over the Cavs.
Teams that have homecourt and go up 2-0 in the conference finals are 60-6 all-time via WhoWins.com.
The Knicks have things they can clean up, but their sheer talent advantage has been on full display in the first two games of this series.
However, there’s also this to consider: are the Knicks really the type of the team we expect to rattle off 10 or 11 straight playoff wins?
New York's magical postseason run is due for a hiccup sometime soon, even if it doesn't totally knock them off course.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Picks, Best Bets
Cavaliers -2.5 (-110)
Despite the bleak series outlook, the historical trends strongly support a standard Game 3 response from the home team. Teams that go up 2-0 are just 26-40 straight up in Game 3.
Furthermore, home favorites down 0-2 regardless of round are 64-31 straight up and 55-38-2 (59%) ATS in Game 3 since 2003, via KillerSports.com. They are an impressive 9-4 SU and ATS in the conference finals.
I think this series will be tied at 2-2 going back to New York, and then the Knicks wrap it up by winning Games 5 and 6. But for starters, I’ll take the Cavs -2.5 in Game 3 tonight.
Over 214.5 (-118)
Overs are 18-8 since the start of the second round and 15-2 in the last 17 playoff games overall.
The over in Cavs playoff home games is also 5-2 this postseason, making Over 214 a highly actionable target.
The script for this game is pretty simple: either the Cavs’ offense kicks it into gear and runs up a big number while New York continues to score, or the Knicks absolutely blister the Cavs with a dominant “the series is over” type of game and score 120+ points on their own.
Either way, it’s an over spot.
Neither team can really prevent the other from getting up threes; Cleveland has the highest 3-point rate in the second round and fourth-highest in the postseason. Maybe they just continue to miss every shot, but history says the role players probably make more.
The Knicks, meanwhile, are comfortable with the shots they’re taking. I can’t see the Cavs doing anything to make them uncomfortable; their defense simply isn’t good enough to do so, and Kenny Atkinson is going to continue playing Sam Merrill in multi-guard lineups that expose their defense.
Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
Evan Mobley has gone over this line in four of his last five games and has settled into a good rhythm.
It’s also a shot that defenses surrender routinely, collapsing on drives by Donovan Mitchell or Harden and leaving Mobley open on the perimeter.
Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points (-102)
The books refuse to adjust to the fact that Cleveland is a highly favorable matchup for Mikal Bridges. The Cavs' defensive schemes tend to leave him open, and he is comfortable attacking against their wings.
Cleveland doesn't have a defensive option with any chance of making Bridges uncomfortable besides Keon Ellis, who has been unplayable for Cleveland lately.
Sam Merrill Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-196)
The juice is steep here; you can bump it to 2.5 3PM at plus-money if you want.
Merrill went 0-of-7 in Game 2 (noted as Game 3 in the original live script). The key is that he continues to get minutes.
Kenny Atkinson will not give up on Merrill, no matter how much the data says he needs to bench him in this matchup, and if he plays, he’ll shoot threes, and role players shoot better at home.
Dean Wade Over 4.5 Rebounds & Assists (-158)
Dean Wade has gone over this line in both games in this series and four of the last five.
All the data says the Cavs are good when Wade plays, and Jalen Brunson is worse. Brunson is just 3-of-7 vs. Wade via NBA.com’s admittedly wonky matchup data.
So he’ll play, even though the Cavs will just allow Brunson to get the switch onto Harden and then flambe the Beard.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 3 Betting Predictions
- Cavaliers -2.5 (-110)
- Over 214.5 (-118)
- Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
- Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points (-102)
- Sam Merrill Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-196)
- Dean Wade Over 4.5 Rebounds & Assists (-158)
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