The Denver Nuggets (23-15) and Dallas Mavericks (22-17) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Nuggets are 3-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Nuggets -3), with the over/under set at 235.5 total points. Denver is a -155 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday night.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Picks, Prediction
Spread
Given that my model makes Dallas closer to a 2.5-point underdog, the home team offers value while catching as many as 3 to 4 points on the spread.
Moneyline
Based on my projection, the Mavericks should be closer to +120, but the market is giving odds as high as +125 or +130.
My Mavericks vs. Nuggets best bet in on on Dallas moneyline at +135, with the best line currently available at Caesars. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Over/Under
This total is a pass for me, as my projection of 233 aligns with the current market number, which ranges from 232.5 to 234.5.
My Pick: Mavericks Moneyline (+130)
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 235.5 -110 / -110 | -155 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 235.5 -110 / -110 | +130 |
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks spread: Nuggets -3
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks over/under: 235.5 total points
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks moneyline: Nuggets -155, Mavericks +130
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks best bet: Mavericks ML (+130)
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA Preview
When I saw this matchup on the schedule, I felt a bit of déjà vu because I was almost certain these two teams faced one another just recently. Sure enough, the two teams played only two days ago in Dallas, with the Nuggets winning 112-101. I went as far as to look at the NBA schedules over the past few decades and struggled to find any other instances when these two teams played one another in back-to-back games, let alone with the same team being at home for both games.
After all, it isn't like this is one of those cross-country trips we see teams embark on at different points in the season. Dallas and Denver are 19 hours apart on the road but only three hours by air.
Thus, this is a unique scheduling spot that bettors would be wise to take advantage of.
Although the Mavericks remain without Luka Doncic due to a calf injury, Dallas still has an above-.500 record (9-8) when he's not on the court. Moreover, beating the same team on their home court in back-to-back games is never straightforward, especially when coming off a double-digit loss.
According to the Killers Sports database, home teams in this spot with one day of rest during the regular season are 21-15-2 (58.3%) against the spread and 18-20 (47.4%) straight up.
Using the same parameters, if we add that the home team is an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points, our results improve to 7-2 (77.8%) straight up and against the spread.
Based on those numbers, it's clear that the home team is somewhat undervalued in this spot following a double-digit loss. The short point spread also suggests that the two teams are probably not as far apart as the public might think. Given the quick turnaround, there's also an element of pride and a willingness to avenge that double-digit home loss that likely gets overlooked in the point spread.
As a result, there's a lot to like about the Mavericks in this spot, and the outright wins by underdogs further strengthen this angle even more.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Predictions, Best Bets
This play on the Mavericks is contingent on the status of their point guard, Kyrie Irving. Irving is currently listed as questionable with a back injury. The eight-time All-Star hasn't played since New Year's Day but will be a game-time decision for Tuesday night.
Although his questionable status does give me some confidence that he'll suit up, I plan to take a different approach when putting together my same-game parlay.
Mavericks' Dereck Lively II is one player I have my sights set on. His scoring prop is set at 8.5—slightly lower than his season average of 9.3 points.
Given that this total suggests this will be a high-scoring game, Lively should have ample scoring opportunities to exceed his projection. The Nuggets are the third-most profitable team for over-betters (24-14, 65.8%) despite having an average total of 230.1 points.
Lively might not be the most talented scorer, but he's adept at finishing around the rim. Dallas ranks 11th in offensive rebounds, which bodes well for him in getting second-chance opportunities.
Since finding his footing in the league as a second-year player, Lively has recorded double-digits (14, 11 and 14) in his last three meetings against the Nuggets. There's no question that this matchup suits his skill set, creating value with his points prop over 8.5.
Best Bet: Mavericks Moneyline (+130)
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Parlay Picks
- Mavericks ML
- Dereck Lively II Over 8.5 points
Parlay Payout: +240
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Betting Trends
