The Orlando Magic (3-1) and Detroit Pistons (1-3) will square off in Game 5 of their first-round NBA playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. The game will stream live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Pistons are 9.5-point favorites over the Magic on the spread (Pistons -9.5), with the over/under set at 211.5 total points. Detroit is a -395 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Orlando is +310 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Magic vs. Pistons predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, April 29.
Magic vs Pistons Prediction
- Magic vs Pistons pick: Tobias Harris Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds (-120)
My Pistons vs. Magic Game 5 best bet is on Tobias Harris to combine for over 22.5 points and rebounds. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Magic vs Pistons Odds for Game 5
| Magic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -102 | 211.5 -108o / -112u | +310 |
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -118 | 211.5 -108o / -112u | -395 |
Magic vs Pistons NBA Playoffs Game 5 Preview
Detroit Pistons Betting Preview, Analysis
I am taken aback by how rough Jalen Duren has looked in this series. Frankly, he was better in the Pistons' playoff series against the Knicks last year than he’s been right now, and the regression is genuinely quite alarming.
If Orlando is going to keep scheming him out of the paint, and the Pistons aren't able to make them pay with their other options, why can’t the Magic just go out there and win this series in five games tonight?
We’ll see. Detroit is back home with their backs against the wall, but JB Bickerstaff is essentially getting worked in this series.
Beyond the coaching, you have to look at the roster construction. We all knew the Pistons needed something more than just converting guys like Daniss Jenkins or relying on Kevin Huerter as their main acquisitions.
Converting Jenkins to a standard contract just so he can play in the playoffs? I don't get it. I’m going to have a lot of Duren questions moving forward, but for tonight, those questions lead me directly to Tobias Harris props.
Orlando Magic Betting Preview, Analysis
Why would the Magic get away from what has been working so well? They have successfully taken Duren out of the equation. But when a team has their back against the wall, somebody is going to step up for Detroit.
In order to stop Duren, Orlando has to leave other guys open. So far, most of those guys haven't been able to make the Magic pay, but if anybody has kind of done it so far, it’s Harris.
I know, I know—saying "we need Tobias Harris to save us" is a scary sentence. It’s a terrifying sentence to utter in a playoff context.
But the reality is that he has gone over this 22.5 line in every single game this series. All four games, he’s cleared it, and for some reason, the books are still giving us this number.
He hasn’t played fewer than 33 minutes in a game yet, and he’s actually averaging 35.5 minutes in this series. He’s also averaging over 16 field goal attempts per game.
Magic vs Pistons Pick, Betting Analysis
When Harris is shooting the ball 16 or more times in a playoff game, it’s a clear signal that the team is desperate for offense. It means he’s effectively your second option.
Ideally, you would want Tobias to be a third or fourth offensive option, but in this series, he has pretty much been the Pistons' secondary scoring threat.
Harris has the second-most playoff experience on this team behind only Duncan Robinson, and while Tobias hasn't had much postseason success in the past, he’s still the one getting the opportunity.
If Orlando continues to negate Duren, those touches have to go somewhere. Tobias has been the main role guy stepping into that void.
Don't sleep on the rebounding floor here, either. In all four games, he’s grabbed at least six rebounds, even pulling down 11 in one of them.
The production is there, the minutes are locked in. He’s beaten this number in four straight games to start the series, and I expect him to make it five tonight while trying to keep Detroit’s season alive.
Pick: Tobias Harris Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds (-120)
