The Indiana Pacers (3-1) and Cleveland Cavaliers (1-3) will face off in Game 5 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Cavaliers are 7.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread, with the over/under set at 230.5 total points. Cleveland is a -320 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +260 to pull off the upset.
This is it for the Cavaliers. A whole season of greatness, one of the most fun seasons in franchise history, 64 wins, the best offense in the league, all of it goes down the tubes with a loss to the Pacers in Game 5.
Will Indiana get the finish on the road tonight? Or can Cleveland rally to extend the series? Let's get into my Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, May 13.
Pacers vs Cavaliers Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 5
My Cavaliers vs. Pacers Game 5 best bet is on Cleveland to cover the spread (if Donovan Mitchell plays), with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Cavaliers -7.5 (-115), if Mitchell plays
Pacers vs Cavaliers Betting Odds for Tuesday, May 13
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 230.5 -110o / -110u | -320 |
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers spread: Cavaliers -7.5
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers over/under: 230.5 total points
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers moneyline: Pacers +260, Cavaliers -320
- Pacers vs. Cavaliers best bet: Cavaliers -7.5 (-115)
Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Preview
Donovan Mitchell is questionable with an ankle injury after his MRI was negative. If Mitchell sits, the Cavaliers’ season is in all likelihood over. But if he plays, with the home crowd behind them, Cleveland can extend the series and give themselves a chance.
The short version is: if Donovan Mitchell plays, I like the Cavs in Game 5 tonight.
I loved Indy last game. The overreaction to the third game was pretty ridiculous. Before the series started, I liked the Cavaliers to win the series, but I would have never expected Cleveland to win both in Indy.
Winning both on the road requires a massive differential between the two teams.
The key is that the Pacers and Cavaliers would have almost definitely split in Cleveland in the first two games if Cleveland was fully healthy. Without three key rotation players, the Cavs still had a late lead in Game 2.
The coin flip went the other way, and Indy got both on the road, which now sets up the perception that there’s a massive differential between the two teams in favor of the Pacers.
If we take a 10,000 ft. view of this series, the Pacers were better than I thought, and this series should probably have been 2-2 with one coin flip game either way, setting up a Game 6 one way or the other.
Instead, injuries and the coin flip game went Indy’s way, and it looks like the Pacers have the Cavs up against a cliff.
I just don’t think that’s the view.
One thing I like to do in these situations is try and adjust for the variance that happened and normalize trends around the natural flow of the series. Again, Indy deserves all the credit in the world for the intentionality and aggression in this series.
But if we imagine the second game did not result exactly the way it did, and this series is 2-2 headed back to Cleveland, we have this trend: Teams tied 2-2 at home in Game 5 after Round 1 are 52-21 SU and 39-34 ATS (53%) since 2003.
And these two trends don't require any imagination:
- Teams down 3-1 at home as more than a 4-point favorite (more than one possession) are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS.
- Across all home Game 5s, regardless of where the series is at, home favorites who win Game 5 are 63-25 (72%) ATS since 2003.
Again, I won’t bet this until I know for certain that Donovan Mitchell is playing. If he’s ruled in, I’ll race to bet Cavs before the line moves. If he’s out, I’m sitting this one out.
Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 5 Betting Predictions
Under 230.5 (-110)
The over is 3-1 in this series so far… in all three Pacers wins. This isn’t rocket science. When the Cavaliers defend better, the game goes under. When they don’t, Indiana runs them over.
So I’m stuck in a correlated loop here. What is the game script for this to go over? The Cavs hit a ton of shots against a surprisingly good defense and just put up a 130?
That’s possible, but if it’s a Cavs blowout with them going wild from 3-point range, that probably means the Cavaliers actually sat down and defended, which they haven’t done much of in this series.
Kenny Atkinson needs to make some adjustments defensively, particularly in screening actions and living with the fact he’s going to have to take Myles Turner seriously as a scorer.
But there are so many adjustments the Cavs have left on the table. They made some in Game 3, and when the Pacers adjusted in Game 4, he got hit with the results of that.
However, there is meat left on the bone. The Cavs have tried to stay away from blitzing ball-handlers in this series, but it’s probably time to start doing so.
On top of that, the Pacers, have the highest effective field goal percentage in this round through four games. They’ve shot the lights out.
But not only that, the Pacers have the highest differential between expected eFG% based on shot location and their actual eFG%. They have shot over expectation. That’s not wild, this is sports, it happens. But there is typically some regression.
Teams that shot better than 50% from the field and 40% from three-point range in the previous game and are road underdogs in the next game have seen the under go 56-46-1 (55%).
I can’t like the Cavs and like the over.
But if Mitchell sits out, the Cavs’ offense may struggle so much that Indiana is able to get downhill in transition and score enough.
Myles Turner Over 15.5 Points (-110)
I have bet this in just about every game of this series, and it’s been a wagon.
If I’m wrong and the Cavaliers make no defensive adjustments, they’ll keep switching, and Turner will be able to draw fouls or score.
Cleveland is leaving him open beyond the arc. Unless Atkinson makes a massive adjustment in how the Cavs are guarding Indiana, this has value.
Pacers vs Cavaliers Best Bets for Game 5
- Cavaliers -7.5 (-115), if Mitchell plays
- Under 230.5 (-110), if Mitchell plays
- Myles Turner Over 15.5 Points (-110)
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