The Cleveland Cavaliers (0-2) will host the Detroit Pistons (2-0) in Game 3 of their second-round NBA playoff series on Saturday afternoon. Tipoff from Rocket Arena in Cleveland is set for 3:00 p.m. ET, with the game airing live on NBC and Peacock.
The Cavaliers are 5.5-point home favorites over the Pistons in Game 3, with the over/under set at 213.5 total points. Cleveland is a -185 moneyline favorite to win outright and keep things interesting, while Detroit is priced at +154 to pull off the road upset and take a commanding 3-0 lead.
Let's break down my Pistons vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Game 3 of Eastern Conference Semifinals on Saturday, May 9.
Pistons vs Cavaliers Prediction
- Pistons vs Cavaliers pick: Cavaliers First-Half Spread -3 (-115)
My Cavaliers vs. Pistons Game 3 betting prediction is on Cleveland to cover the first-half spread (-3). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 3 Odds
| Pistons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -118 | 213.5 -105o / -115u | +154 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -102 | 213.5 -105o / -115u | -185 |
Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Playoffs Game 3 Preview
Can Cleveland Survive a James Harden Disappearing Act?
Can James Harden really play this badly in three straight games? Harden is notorious for his postseason disappearing acts, and this series may turn out to be no different, but all the trends support a play on the Cavaliers in Game 3 today, and the first-half spread is the safest bet I can find.
Teams down 2-0 are 29-16 ATS first half, covering by 2.6-points per half via KillerSports.com.
The Cavs didn't play terrible in the first two games of this series, but they are doing all the things that makes you worry about them. They are giving the ball too much to Harden, who can’t handle the Pistons’ physicality and help-defense tendencies. They played offensive lineups when they know they need physicality to battle the Pistons; inserting guys like Max Strus, and Sam Merrill (before his injury), before Jaylon Tyson.
The Cavs also allowed Cade Cunningham to get Harden on a switch defensively in the fourth quarter of a close game, which proved to be devastating, and they are failing to get anything of substance from Evan Mobley, a guy who once drew comparisons to Tim Duncan.
Some of this is as simple as “the shots will go down more at home.” But when you trade for Harden, you become a "James Harden" team. You can be other things, like the Clippers were still a "Kawhi Leonard" team, but they were also a Harden team.
The Cavaliers are a "Donovan Mitchell" team right now, but they are also a Harden team — and the Cavs have engaged him as the 2018 version of himself, when he is not the 2022 version or 2024 version, let alone the 2018 MVP version.
So, Cleveland needs to make a lot of changes. But this is the spot where those changes usually enter the fold and the home team plays with desperation.
Pistons Imposing Their Physicality
Pistons' fans have understandably felt like the emphasis has been on Cavaliers failures instead of Detroit's success through the first two games of this series, and make no mistake about it, they’ve been great.
The Pistons aren't shooting the lights out, but they are playing great basketball and imposing their physicality, which leads to good things.
The scariest part is that the Cavs seem very reluctant to match-up in the ways they need. They want to win the same way they won in the regular season the last two years.
This isn’t a lazy Tuesday night in January. This is Detroit Basketball in May, and the Pistons, after being pushed to the brink by the Magic, are going for the jugular on the road in Game 3 today.
Pistons vs Cavaliers Picks, Betting Predictions
Cavaliers First-Half Spread -3
I'm backing the Cavaliers to cover the first-half spread this afternoon. I expect Cleveland to push this series to at least six games, and this one is an absolute must-win if that's going to be the case.
However, I'm not betting the full-game number because the Cavs simply haven't done enough to earn my trust in the first two games of this series, or these playoffs. But I think we'll see them come out of the gates swinging early today.
First Quarter Under 54.5 Points
Eastern Conference first-quarter Unders are 26-9 in the playoffs so far (26%).
Here are the two ways I envision the first quarter of Game 3 playing out: either the Pistons hit them with a big punch in the mouth, getting stops and killing the crowd, or the Pistons struggle to force turnovers and can’t score at all and their base defense still holds the Cavs under 30. Those are the two most likely scenarios.
There’s a chance the Cavs come out and hit a bunch of threes and run away with it early, but I just have more faith in Detroit’s defense, rebounding, and physicality to not allow that.
Even if the Pistons wind up in foul trouble — which is very likely — that means they’re going against set defenses.
Head-to-Head Scoring: Donovan Mitchell More Points Than Cade Cunningham
This line is insane. Mitchell has had a much easier time finding opportunities in this series than Cunningham.
Cunningham had 13 points heading into the fourth quarter of Game 2 because the Cavaliers are rightly putting two defenders at the levels and blitzing him to get the ball out of his hands. In the event that they give the switch to Harden again (which they should not), they will send double-teams.
The plan is pretty simple: A-B-C… Anybody But Cade. The Cavs have played drop coverage against Daniss Jenkins for some reason (14 points in Game 2) and played too far off Tobias Harris — but they will not let Cunningham get going.
The Pistons, meanwhile, are going to keep dropping vs. Mitchell and letting him get downhill. He’ll keep getting to the line (7-of-9 FTA Game 2) and getting to his floater. Even with Harden soaking up unnecessary possessions, Mitchell will score.
There is no universe where Cade should be favored here.
Daniss Jenkins Over 13.5 Points & Assists
Speaking of Jenkins, he’s gone over this line in three straight games, and finally seems to be getting over his playoff jitters.
It seems like the Cavaliers didn't read the scouting report on Jenkins and seem content letting him do whatever he wants. He’s averaged 18 PA across the last three games and continues to earn more opportunities.
Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 3 Best Bets
- Cavaliers 1H -3 (-115)
- First Quarter Under 54.5 Points (-108)
- H2H Scoring: Donovan Mitchell More Points Than Cade Cunningham (+108)
- Daniss Jenkins Over 13.5 Points & Assists (-114)
