The Houston Rockets (12-6) and Minnesota Timberwolves (8-8) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Timberwolves are favorites over the Rockets on the spread (Wolves -3), with the over/under set at 220.5 total points. Minnesota is a -155 favorite to win outright, while Houston is +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs Rockets prediction and NBA picks for Tuesday, November 26.
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Picks
Spread
The spread opened as Wolves -3.5 for this game. It is in Minnesota, but I think the number is still telling. There have been massive power rating adjustments for both of these teams already this season. Wolves were projected to be somewhere atop the west, while the Rockets were a projected 7-10 seed and in the Western Conference play-in tournament.
Now this spread shows them to be nearly even, with the books still projecting the Wolves to be slightly better. Regular season home court is worth about 2.5 points. I really like Houston as an underdog, especially since they are already 2-0 in their group for the NBA Cup, and no other team has 2 wins.
Winning against the Wolves automatically puts them as best or tied for best record in their group, eliminating Minnesota, and only concerning themselves with possible point differential margin. I like taking the +3.5 with the Rockets if betting the spread.
Moneyline
On the moneyline, it is either Houston or nothing. The numbers 1-3 are not really NBA key numbers because of late game fouling until its a two+ possession game, so if you are playing the Wolves you should just play the spread. Inversely, if you are playing the underdog side, taking a slight escalator with a moneyline play makes a lot of sense. I would go with 0.5u spread and 0.25u ML in this scenario.
Over/Under
The over is the early spot that I like here. The Wolves are shooting a top-5 volume of 3-point attempts, and converting with the 7th best efficiency. Those numbers are great for over-backers. Despite it not leading to a ton of Wolves offensive explosions, it is coming.
On the flip side, the Wolves defense has regressed from 1st last season to 15th. Gobert's defensive net rating has dropped, and Naz Reid and Julius Randle combo is not nearly as good defensively as Reid was with Towns last season. The Rockets can play very fast in transition to avoid the Gobert rim protection; so expect Rockets pace and Wolves 3-point volume.
My Pick: Over 221.5 (1u)
Rockets vs Timberwolves Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 220.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 220.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
- Rockets vs Timberwolves spread: Wolves -3
- Rockets vs Timberwolves over/under: 220.5 points
- Rockets vs Timberwolves moneyline: Wolves -155, Rockets +130
- Rockets vs Timberwolves best bet: Over 220.5
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Preview
This game is very important for NBA Cup group stage standings. If the Rockets win, they have a controlling hold on their group, being the only team with 3 wins after 3 games, and would be in a dominant position going into the 4th night. The Wolves are eliminated with a loss, or right back in the thick of it with a big win.
Both teams need this, and by points would be effective too. I expect pace and offense. The Rockets are great in transition, the Wolves are launching 3-pointers both with volume and efficiency in the top 10. A scoring outburst is coming, and I believe this is a spot to play into it.
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Prediction
My favorite bet for this spot is the over because of the urgency in the cup, the need for points for scoring differential in the cup standings, and the fact that these teams have advanced stats that scream offensive output is coming.
The Wolves 3pt volume and efficiency are the top 10 in the NBA in both categories, while their defensive efficiency has slipped to 15th best and league average. The Wolves are 9-7 to the over, and I think this direction at a reasonably low 220 numbers should be regularly attacked until the market adjusts to regularly being mid 220s.
Strong over spot here, and a hunch this is a Rockets spot as well.
Best Bet: Over 221.5 (1u)
Same Game Parlay: Over 221.5 /Rockets ML +140 (+325, 0.25u)
Timberwolves vs Rockets Betting Trends
