The San Antonio Spurs (0-2) and New York Knicks (2-0) will square off in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Knicks are 2.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Knicks -2.5), with the over/under set at 216.5 total points. New York is listed as a -130 moneyline favorite to win outright, while San Antonio is priced at +110 to pull off the upset.
Will New York keep its historic springtime hot-streak alive and win a 14th straight game, or will San Antonio finally flip the narrative on its head? Let's get to my Spurs vs. Knicks predictions and NBA Finals Game 3 picks for Monday, June 8.
Spurs vs Knicks Prediction for Game 3
- Spurs vs Knicks picks: Under 216.5 (-115) + 3 Player Props
My Knicks vs. Spurs Game 3 best bets are on the total to stay under 216.5 points and three player prop picks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Knicks Odds for NBA Finals Game 3
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 216.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 216.5 -105o / -115u | -130 |
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Spurs vs Knicks NBA Finals Game 3 Preview
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview, Analysis
Madison Square Garden becomes the absolute center of the sports world as it so often does on Monday, but the circus is set to be bigger and louder than ever under the Big Top as the NBA Finals return to the World’s Most Famous Arena for the first time in 27 years.
The Spurs are desperate, facing the prospect of their season being effectively done 10 days after they beat the defending champions and pulled off one of the biggest wins in franchise history. That’s how fast things can change.
On the basketball side, I can’t find a lot of arguments for either team. The Spurs continue to hurt themselves with their inexperience by attacking in transition against good, athletic defenders who have held them to a 0.84 points per possession mark compared to their regular-season average of 1.15.
The Spurs aren’t generating good shots often, and they aren’t making the good shots when they do generate them either. They seem completely overwhelmed by the Knicks’ physicality and intensity.
Karl-Anthony Towns is outplaying Victor Wembanyama, and as long as that’s the case, the Spurs are pretty well doomed.
Looking at the numbers, the Spurs were 2.5-point underdogs with a limited Wembanyama coming off the bench in the Cup Final back in January. That suggests this line actually undervalues the Knicks, and New York won that game easily.
The Spurs were 1.5-point favorites in New York in March and lost by 25. The Spurs closed at -4.5 in Game 1 and -6.5 in Game 2 of this series. Standard homecourt is a 7-point flip.
So, the best team in the West, with a better record, better stats, and who beat the Thunder, based on this line, should have been a five-point favorite in San Antonio—smack in the middle of the Game 1 and Game 2 lines.
The spread for Game 3 is priced appropriately.
New York Knicks Betting Preview, Analysis
The Knicks lead 2-0, and they have now won 13 straight playoff games. New York hasn't lost since late-April. Remember when the Hawks went up 2-1 on them in the first round?!
The Knicks have played their best basketball, every game, for going on two months. Every single piece of momentum is on their side.
For the Knicks, they continue to find ways to get surprising outcomes, like winning the Jose Alvarado minutes by 15 points and having the Spurs shoot 15 percent from 3-point range while Josh Hart is on the floor.
But it’s not luck; they’ve gone right at the Spurs on every possession, found every edge, and beat them at every point of attack on offense and defense.
There aren’t massive things the Knicks need to clean up, because the Spurs are just going to beat themselves. They just might not do it for a game.
I bet on the Spurs in Game 1; teams with a better point differential on the season were 17-2 going into that game. I lost.
I bet on the Spurs again, reluctantly, in Game 2. Teams in that spot were 60% ATS since 2003. I lost.
Clearly, the value was on the Knicks in Games 1 and 2. Maybe the value is just on the Knicks to win every time. If you’ve been rolling over the moneyline, congrats, you have made an insane amount of money.
Unfortunately, I cannot in any way justify an argument that the value is on the Knicks here.
Now, the hype and pressure of this game is considerable. Knicks' fans have been dreaming of this, begging for this, and now their team is finally on the verge of delivering it. They are now expected to win, and that's a tough environment if things go sideways.
If the Knicks don’t win, the frustration will be real, even though fans will remember all the comebacks they’ve made along the way.
That said, you could not bankroll me to bet the Spurs in this game. I will not bet against the Knicks again; at least, not until they lose a game. At some point, we’re just chasing good money after bad.
If you want to bet the Knicks here, I can’t blame you. It’s worked. Over and over again, it’s worked and been profitable. Just keep it simple and bet the Knicks moneyline at -115. Do the thing that has happened 13 straight times.
I lean Knicks, but I’ll stay away from the side in Game 3 tonight.
Spurs vs Knicks Picks, Betting Analysis
Under 216.5 (-115)
The two most likely outcomes for the total are another game where the Spurs offense can’t function at all and they continue to overpress and throw up bad shots while missing the good ones, or they slow the game down, draw more free throws, and make this an ugly defensive game.
Either way, that leads to an under.
The total opened 216.5 and has stayed at 216.5, but there are over 216.5s at -105, suggesting some equity on the under, and that’s despite over 60% of the tickets and money tracked in our system being on the over.
The market read is under, and the basketball side supports it as well.
Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points (+100)
I expected a huge series from Mikal Bridges and then he had an absolute dud in Game 1, barely getting the ball, only to bounce back huge in Game 2.
He’s cleared this in nine of 16 playoff games and four of the last five.
Bridges will continue to get looks both off the trap of Jalen Brunson and in the second unit as a ball-handler.
Head-to-Head Points: Dylan Harper Over OG Anunoby (+103)
Dylan Harper has been phenomenal as a straight-line scorer and pure jump shooter.
The Spurs don’t ask him to run any offense, and when he doesn’t have De’Aaron Fox or Wembanyama on the floor, it hasn’t worked.
But if the Spurs go away from Julian Champagnie, who is getting hunted defensively, Harper will play more with a bigger role offensively.
Head-to-Head Assists: Josh Hart Over Stephon Castle (+268)
These two guys tied in this category in Game 2, after Hart beat him in Game 1.
Stephon Castle is pressing and out of control; turnovers are way more likely than assists with how he’s playing.
Meanwhile, Hart will continue to create for teammates.
Matt Moore's Spurs vs Knicks Best Bets for Game 3
- Under 216.5 (-115)
- Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 Points (+100)
- Head-to-Head Points: Dylan Harper Over OG Anunoby (+103)
- Head-to-Head Assists: Josh Hart Over Stephon Castle (+268)
