The Houston Rockets (34-21) and Minnesota Timberwolves (31-25) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Rockets are 3.5-point home favorites over the Wolves on the spread, with the over/under set at 220.5 total points. Houston is a -162 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +136 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Timberwolves vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Friday, February 21.
Timberwolves vs Rockets Prediction, Picks
Spread
We're getting some value with Minnesota as a +3.5 underdog. My model projects the Timberwolves should be closer to +3, and some intriguing angles suggest the visitors might just be the right side.
Moneyline
I wouldn't rule out a Timberwolves outright victory. Minnesota seems to have Houston's number in this series, considering it's won eight of the last 10 meetings.
Over/Under
My projection for this game is right around 216 points. With the market sitting at 220.5, I prefer to pass on taking either side with the total.
My Pick: Timberwolves +3.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Rockets Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 220.5 -110o / -110u | +136 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 220.5 -110o / -110u | -162 |
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets spread: Rockets -3.5
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets over/under: 220.5 total points
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets moneyline: Rockets -162, Timberwolves +136
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets best bet: Timberwolves +3.5 (-110)
My Rockets vs. Timberwolves best bet is on Minnesota to cover the spread at +3.5, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets Preview
Sometimes, a win at the right time could be enough to carry a team just when they need a boost of confidence the most. The Timberwolves got that much-needed victory last Thursday when they soundly defeated the Thunder by a score of 116-101.
While a double-digit triumph against the best team in the West was no small feat, perhaps more impressive was that the Timberwolves never trailed at any point in the game.
After finishing 56-26 and third in the conference last season, one could easily say that Minnesota has struggled to find its footing in this campaign. They currently have a 31-25 record, which is only good enough for the seventh seed in the conference.
The good news is the Timberwolves are only a half-game behind the Clippers for an automatic berth into the playoff round.
A closer look at the underlying numbers would suggest that Minnesota had fallen prey to some hard luck, given it's a top-15 team offensively (113.6 Rating), top-six defensively (110.2 Rating), and top-eight in Net Rating +3.4.
Furthermore, ESPN's Relative Percent Index projects the Timberwolves should be closer to a 35-21 team. Those numbers are somewhat consistent with TeamRankings listing Minnesota as the fourth-unluckiest team this season with a -2.9 value.
Thus, if things were ever going to turn around for the Timberwolves, why not now?
According to our Action Labs database, teams with eight or more days of rest coming off a victory before the February All-Star break are 81-71 (53.3%) against the spread. Moreover, when facing an opponent with similar rest coming off a loss, those numbers improve to 36-24 (60%).
The Timberwolves might just be a bet-on team post-All-Star break, and it could all kick off with Friday's visit to the Toyota Center.
Now that I've made a strong case for the Timberwolves to cover the spread, I'll also look to fade Amen Thompson of the Rockets in my same-game parlay.
Thompson has a rebounds + assists prop of 13.5, yet he's only exceeded that projection in 17 of 52 games this season.
While I'd fully acknowledge that he has been on a bit of a breakout over his last 20 games with 12 covers, he could find things a bit more difficult against a top-10 defense of Minnesota's caliber.
In his last six games against the Timberwolves, the second-year small forward has stayed under 13.5 rebounds and assists, averaging 9.5 with a median of 8.5.
DraftKings is offering almost even money (-105) for the Under on Thompson's prop, and combining it with a Timberwolves cover would help boost our odds to +234.
Timberwolves vs Rockets Best Bet
- Timberwolves +3.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Rockets Parlay Picks
- Timberwolves +3.5
- Amen Thompson Under 13.5 Rebounds + Assists
Parlay Payout: +234
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends
