The Golden State Warriors (3-3) and Houston Rockets (3-3) will face off in a winner-take-all Game 7 to close their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Rockets are 2.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread (Rockets -2.5), with the over/under set at 206.5 total points. Houston is a -135 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +114 to pull off the upset.
Game 7s are brutal affairs. Both teams tend to be exhausted and out of counters. Tonight's Game 7 between Golden State and Houston may be even more brutal than usual.
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, May 4.
Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 7
My Rockets vs. Warriors Game 7 best bet is on the Under at 206.5 total points, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Under 206.5 (-110)
Warriors vs Rockets Betting Odds for Sunday, May 4
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 206.5 -111o / -110u | +114 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 206.5 -111o / -110u | -135 |
- Warriors vs. Rockets spread: Rockets -2.5
- Warriors vs. Rockets over/under: 206.5 total points
- Warriors vs. Rockets moneyline: Warriors +114, Rockets -135
- Warriors vs. Rockets best bet: Under 206.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Preview for Game 7
Under 206.5 (-110)
The Rockets have deployed a wicked matchup zone, bent to whatever side Steph Curry occupies to cut off his ability to get free and force the poor shooting Warriors to counter it. They’ve failed to do so thus far.
Meanwhile, the Rockets have gone Over their team total in two straight games thanks to Fred VanVleet going supernova and Steven Adams’ stellar offensive rebounding.
However, the Rockets' offense is still limited, and in a Game 7 scenario, it’s reasonable to expect things to tighten up.
I'm taking the Under in tonight's matchup.
First round Game 7s go Over more often than not, but these two teams are built to absolutely slug it out.
Neither team wants an up-and-down affair, and neither has shooters to create separation.
Draymond Green Under 6.5 Rebounds (-115)
Draymond Green has gone Under this line in two straight games.
The Rockets are making it increasingly harder for him to stay inside and contain their drives, oftentimes pulling him out to the perimeter, which naturally limits his rebound chances.
Aleperen Sengun has consistently beaten Green in his minutes, and with the Rockets playing two-big and Steve Kerr’s penchant for small-ball, it’s unlikely Green grabs enough to go Over this line.
If Kerr goes away from small-ball, it will likely be to put another big on the floor who can rebound like Kevon Looney.
Game to Go to Overtime (+1100)
I’m expecting tonight's Game 7 to go down to the wire, but I don’t know if either side can be trusted to execute.
I will also sprinkle on tonight's game to go to overtime as a safety measure for our Under bets, because I project this game at Rockets -0.1.
Warriors vs Rockets Game 7 Best Bets
- Under 206.5 (-110)
- Draymond Green Under 6.5 Rebounds (-115)
- Game to Go to Overtime (+1100)
For the latest on NBA injuries, be sure to check out our NBA Injury Report page.
